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|4 min ReadCoinbase 2025 Report Card: We Nailed Stablecoins, But Missed the October Crash
Carter Hayes
Senior Analyst
Published
Feb 5, 2026
The exchange's institutional team gives themselves a "6.5/10" score for 2025. While they correctly predicted the macro pivot and regulatory wins, they underestimated the market's fragility, specifically the "October 10 Deleveraging Event" that wiped out Q4 sentiment.
The Macro Paradox: Rates Cut, But BTC Lagged Gold
David Duong and team admit a nuanced miss here (Score: 8/10).
The Call: Fed easing = Soft Landing = Crypto Pump.
The Reality: The Fed did cut rates by 75bps (to 3.50%-3.75%) by December 2025. However, Bitcoin failed to catch the "debasement trade." While Gold rallied on fiat fears, BTC price action was driven more by leverage than fundamentals.
The 126,000, but held it for "barely 24 hours" before the October flush.
The Institutional Wins: Infrastructure & Regulation
Where Coinbase shined was in predicting the "boring" backend growth.
Stablecoins (Score 10/10): Market cap surged past $300 billion. The Stripe/Bridge acquisition proved stablecoins have moved from trading tools to global payment rails.
Regulation (Score 9/10): The GENIUS Act (July 2025) and the repeal of SAB 121 marked the official end of "regulation by enforcement."
RWA Tokenization (Score 8/10): On-chain Real World Assets grew 2.3x, from 20 billion. Institutional pilot programs finally went live.
Prediction Markets (Score 10/10): Volume exploded 130x. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi generated 40B in volume, successfully pivoting from election betting to sports and macro finance.
The Retail Misses: Alt Season Cancelled
The report highlights a painful reality for retail traders (Score: 3/10).
Altcoin Season: Failed. Coinbase predicted a 2H 2025 rotation. Instead, the October 10 leverage reset destroyed significant paper wealth. The "wealth effect" from BTC never trickled down.
Telegram Bots: Failed. Expected to be profit centers, they lost dominance as users migrated to better mobile DEX interfaces. High fees killed the "sniping" meta.
Gaming: Mixed (7/10). The "Play-to-Earn" Ponzi model died, replaced by high-quality titles with invisible blockchain tech. Great for gamers, bad for token speculators.
The Silver Lining: Sticky Capital
Despite the volatility, the "Digital Asset Treasury" (DAT) thesis held firm. Corporations now hold approximately 3.5% of the total Bitcoin supply. Unlike retail hands, this capital didn't panic sell during the October crash, proving that institutional adoption is structural, not speculative.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.