BitcoinMarketsOpinion
|5 min ReadGlassnode: Bears Seize Control as BTC Loses Critical $80.2k "True Market Mean"
Lucca Menezes
Senior Analyst
Published
Feb 5, 2026
The market has shifted from a correction to a defensive regime. With spot volumes structurally depressed and institutions de-risking, the "True Market Mean" has flipped from support to heavy resistance.
The Structural Break: 72k
The bull market guardrails have broken. Bitcoin has rolled over from 72k, shattering the True Market Mean ($80.2k). This metric filters out lost coins and typically acts as the "sand in the line" for shallow bear phases. We are now trading below it.
Translation: The average active market participant is now underwater. The $80.2k level is no longer a floor; it is now a formidable overhead resistance ceiling.
The "Hard Deck": Where are the Buyers?
If 66.9k – 55k.
Capitulation Signs: The Pain Trade
Investors are puking. Realized Losses have spiked to 2.4 billion. This isn't profit-taking; it's forced exiting.
Zooming out, the Relative Unrealized Loss metric is climbing above its mean (12%). While we aren't at the "total collapse" levels of FTX (60%+), the stress is high enough to suggest fragile hands are still being shaken out.
The Demand Vacuum: Institutions Walk Away
This is the most bearish chart in the deck. The ETF and Treasury Netflows—the engine of the 2024-2025 rally—have flipped to net outflows. The "passive bid" that traders relied on is gone.
Compounding this is the lack of spot volume. Even as prices dip, volume remains structurally weak (below the 30D average). Sellers are aggressive, and buyers are passive. There is no absorption happening here.
Derivatives: The Flush and The Fear
Futures markets finally puked. We just saw the largest Long Liquidation spike of this entire drawdown. The leverage is being reset, but without spot demand (see above), this is just a "clean out," not a reversal signal.
Options: Pricing for Disaster
The options market is screaming caution. Short-dated Implied Volatility (IV) spiked to 70% as price tested $73k. Traders are paying up for near-term protection.
The Skew confirms this. Downside Skew is steepening, meaning Puts are significantly more expensive than Calls. No one is betting on a V-shaped recovery; everyone is hedging against a crash.
The Carry Trade Unwinds
The Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) has flipped negative (-5). This is rare. It means IV is trading below realized volatility. Options sellers are losing money and forcing hedges, which adds mechanical selling pressure to the market.
Finally, the $75k Put strikes are seeing massive buy-side activity. The premium bought (red) far exceeds premium sold (green), confirming that the "Smart Money" is using this level as a line in the sand.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.