BitcoinMarkets
|4 min ReadBitcoin Breaches $70,000: Technical Breakdown Meets Macro Headwinds
Maya Chen
Senior Analyst
Published
Feb 5, 2026
Bitcoin (BTC) suffered one of its most structurally damaging sessions of the year on Thursday, capitulating below the critical 69,320, down over 5% intraday, as a confluence of deteriorating technical indicators and tightening macroeconomic conditions forces a violent repricing of risk assets.
The breakdown marks a decisive shift from the high-level consolidation seen in January to a confirmed corrective phase, with bears now firmly in control of the medium-term trajectory.
Macro Analysis: The Liquidity Tide Turns
The sell-off is not occurring in a vacuum. The broader financial landscape is undergoing a period of "risk calibration" driven by shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy. With the bond market pricing in a more hawkish stance following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, real yields have ticked upward. This has strengthened the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), creating a hostile environment for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and Gold.
Furthermore, the "institutional put" — the theory that ETF inflows would buoy prices indefinitely — is showing cracks. Major issuers, including BlackRock’s IBIT, have recorded three consecutive days of net outflows. This suggests that traditional finance (TradFi) allocators are engaging in tactical de-risking, rotating capital out of high-beta crypto exposure and into defensive yield-bearing instruments.
Deep Dive: Technical Market Structure
From a charting perspective, the damage inflicted on Thursday is significant. The technical posture has shifted from bullish neutral to deeply bearish across multiple timeframes.
The EMA Crossover and Dynamic ResistanceOn the daily timeframe, price action has been violently rejected by the short-term moving averages. Crucially, a bearish crossover has occurred: the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has crossed below the 50-day EMA. This lag-adjusted signal often confirms the transition from a trend retracement to a broader trend reversal.
Currently, the 5-day EMA is diving steeply toward $70,800, acting as immediate dynamic resistance. Any relief rally is likely to be capped by this level, as algorithms and active traders look to "sell the rip."
MACD Momentum AccelerationThe Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator paints a grim picture of accelerating bearish momentum. The MACD line has diverged further below the signal line deep in negative territory, and the histogram is expanding downward. This indicates that the selling pressure is not yet exhausted; rather, it is in the middle of an expansion phase. Until the histogram begins to contract and show a "rounding bottom," the path of least resistance remains lower.
Long-Term Support LevelsThe loss of 69,000 level represents the last line of defense before a significant air pocket.
Technicians are now eyeing 54,000 volume control point.
Outlook and Trading Logic
The market structure has effectively flipped. The 72,000 zone, previously a demand cluster, has now hardened into a heavy supply zone. A significant amount of leverage is trapped above these levels, implying that any bounce will be met with aggressive selling from underwater long positions seeking to exit at breakeven.
For traders, the probability continues to favor short-biased strategies. The immediate downside target remains a liquidity sweep below 66,300 pivot.
For long-term accumulators, patience is paramount. With the RSI (Relative Strength Index) not yet in deep oversold territory (<30) and no evidence of bullish divergence on the 4-hour or daily charts, trying to "catch the knife" carries outsized risk. The market is currently in price discovery mode to the downside, and stability must be proven, not assumed.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.