Opinion
|3 min ReadWilly Woo Says the Next Crypto Bear Market Will Come From the Real Economy
Maya Chen
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
A New Kind of Threat
Analyst Willy Woo believes the next crypto downturn won’t come from within the industry. It will come from the broader economy.
In a post Monday, Woo warned that the next bear market could be “defined by another cycle people forget about” — the global business cycle. The last two major business downturns, in 2001 and 2008, both happened before Bitcoin existed.
Woo explained that past crypto cycles were driven by two overlapping patterns: Bitcoin’s four-year halving schedule and the global money supply (M2) expansion pushed by central banks. “Central banks inject M2 debasement in four-year cycles and both superimpose,” he said.
But the next phase, he argued, will be shaped by the business cycle itself — something the crypto market has never faced. “If we get a biz cycle downturn, like 2001 or 2008, it will test how BTC trades. Will it drop like tech stocks or will it drop like gold?” Woo said.
When Liquidity Shrinks
A business cycle downturn, or recession, happens when GDP falls, unemployment rises, and consumer spending weakens. Woo’s point: crypto doesn’t exist in isolation. When liquidity dries up, digital assets feel it too.
The 2001 “dot-com bubble” crash wiped out overvalued tech firms and cut the S&P 500 by 50 percent over two years. The 2008 “financial crisis” was even worse, with a 56 percent collapse triggered by a mortgage meltdown and a global credit freeze.
These events crushed liquidity — and if a similar contraction hits now, Bitcoin and the wider crypto market will finally be tested against a real macro storm.
Timing the Next Downturn
The National Bureau of Economic Research identifies recessions using four key indicators: employment, personal income, industrial output, and retail sales.
While the 2020 pandemic caused a short recession, current data shows no immediate downturn. Still, Woo noted that risk is rising as trade tariffs cut into growth. The first half of 2025 already saw weaker GDP, and the drag could continue through 2026.
Historical business cycles and recessions. Source: NBER
If Woo is right, the next crypto bear market won’t be triggered by halving cycles or speculative bubbles. It will be sparked by something far older — the rhythm of the global economy itself.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.