BitcoinMarkets
|3 min ReadBitcoin eyes rebound as October trend returns
Carter Hayes
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
The setup: October loves Bitcoin
Drops of more than 5 percent in October are rare. Economist Timothy Peterson says it happened only four times in the past decade. He tracked the next week each time. 2017 bounced 16 percent. 2018 added 4 percent. 2019 ripped 21 percent. Only 2021 slipped another 3 percent. His view is simple: “Drops of more than 5% in October are exceedingly rare.” That pattern matters now.
October is often called Uptober for a reason. Since 2013, it has delivered an average 20.10 percent return, second only to November.
The trigger: tariffs and a reset
The wick came fast. Bitcoin briefly hit 102,000 on Friday after US President Donald Trump announced a 100 percent tariff on Chinese imports. That headline flipped the whole market into risk off for a moment. Liquidations did the rest. In 24 hours, 2.19 billion in Bitcoin longs were wiped. Across crypto, long liquidations hit $8.02 billion, according to 102,000 on Friday after US President Donald Trump announced a 100 percent tariff on Chinese imports. That headline flipped the whole market into risk off for a moment. Liquidations did the rest. In 24 hours, CoinGlass.
Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten spelled out the play. Macro-driven dips wash out leverage and weak hands. Then the market resets for the next leg. “Bitcoin can get dragged around a bit before it finds support and starts to decouple again,” he told readers. At publication time, price had already clawed back to the 125,100 on Monday, per 112,000 area after tagging a new all-time high of CoinMarketCap.
What it means now
History gives you a clean blueprint. A 21 percent rebound off 124,000 within a week. That sits just below the latest high. The window is open. It will not stay open long.
Builders and veterans are unfazed. Jan3 founder Samson Mow reminded everyone, “There are still 21 days left in Uptober.” MN Trading Capital’s Michael van de Poppe called it outright: “This is the bottom of the current cycle.” He compared the flush to COVID’s cycle low and called it the biggest liquidation crash in history.
Others are already thinking bigger. The Bitcoin Libertarian said wild swings are the new normal at scale. “In a few years, Bitcoin will crash from 0.8M in a few hours,” he wrote. “Let history repeat.”
This is the game. Fear knocks you out. Seasonality and flow lift those who stay in. The push to $124,000 is on the table right now. Fortune favors the bold. Always has.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.