MarketsEthereumBitcoinAltcoins
|6 min ReadWeekly report: Market braces for post FOMC turn as alt risk peaks
Maya Chen
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
Euphoria fades, reversal risk rises
We are near the end of this local trend. The Janbarometer has been on point this year. It now says a reversal is close. The risk and reward are skewed. A post FOMC correction is likely. Lock gains before the last push.
Open interest in altcoins just passed Bitcoin for the first time since December. The last two times this happened, local tops followed. Maybe one percent feels true euphoria today. Most do not. The winners will pick assets that hold attention when liquidity thins.
Liquidity is selective. Macro is hostile. Yet assets climb. Bitcoin, equities, and gold grind higher. The driver is debasement. Investors hedge the erosion of cash.
2021 was a liquidity cycle. Credit was cheap, liquidity abundant, and risk assets had full tailwinds. 2025 is different. Rates are high, liquidity tight, and still the tape rises. This changes cadence. Broad risk-on fades. Selective flows favor quality and resilience. The game shifts to timing, patience, and discipline.
Liquidity reality and where the money goes
Bullish signals exist. BTC dominance is falling. Alt open interest is above BTC. CEX tokens rotate. But liquidity is scarce. Years of meme tax farms and celebrity coins left scars. Traders chase dopamine. The next shiny launch pulls them in. Builders fight for sustained capital.
As a result, liquidity consolidates into higher cap names with loyal communities. These names can sustain attention and inflows. Quality first. Noise last.
Macro drives the split. 2021 growth came from liquidity expansion. Risk assets outperformed broadly. 2025 growth comes from fiat devaluation. Strength clusters in hard assets and quality names. The game is tougher. You cannot lean on money everywhere. The opportunity is sharper for those who adapt.
Catalysts, positioning, and the week’s map
Bonds price a downside move already. FedWatch shows about 88 percent odds for a 25 bp cut and about 12 percent for 50 bp. First cuts of 50 bp have often signaled recession. Markets then slow bleed. Cuts of 25 bp more often imply a soft landing. Growth holds. Seasonal signals like the Janbarometer warn of post FOMC volatility. Respect that.
The Bitcoin Buzz Indicator matters. Track the shift in attention and flow. A rollover warns that momentum is fragile. A turn up can confirm risk-on. Use it to time entries, not to predict headlines.
Market overview is clear. A Dogecoin ETF arrived. REX Shares and Osprey Funds launched DOJE, the first U.S. fund directly tied to DOGE. It signals memecoin legitimization in traditional markets. Retail will likely dominate demand given DOGE’s limited utility. Cboe proposed continuous bitcoin and ether futures extending up to ten years with daily cash settlement. That could cut rollover costs, widen institutional strategies, and add liquidity, pending approval. Ant Digital is tokenizing 8.4 billion of renewable assets on AntChain. It brings real time production data and automated revenue distribution. This model shows how blockchains can finance infrastructure at scale. Forward’s Solana treasury plans a 1.65 billion PIPE led by Galaxy and Jump Crypto. It aims to turn Forward Industries into a cornerstone SOL holder. This is early institutional treasury activity beyond BTC and ETH. It can reshape Solana’s capital market narrative.
Key economic metrics set the backdrop. Jobs are harder to find in many traditional industries. Upskill or pivot to resilient sectors like healthcare and services. Paychecks buy more today, with wages up 3.7 percent year over year. That sits above inflation. Tariff pressure could erase gains. Debt relief may come if rates drop. Financial stress is rising, so budget conservatively and prepare to refinance. Investments will face volatility. Cuts can boost markets short term. Inflation risk can reverse gains quickly.
Labor dynamics are bifurcated. Job creation slowed from 868,000 in Q4 2024 to 491,000 in Q1 2025 and 107,000 in Q2. August saw 22,000 jobs. Healthcare added about 46,800 and hospitality about 28,000. Manufacturing, construction, and business services contracted. Unemployment is 4.3 percent, the highest since 2021. Participation is creeping up. Pain concentrates in low skill roles.
Macro signals line up. The 10 year Treasury yield fell to 4.1 percent, a ten month low. Markets price a slowdown and Fed cuts. Futures imply about 90 percent odds of a September cut and two to three cuts by year end. Credit card, auto loan, and student loan delinquencies are rising. Households feel the squeeze even as corporate conditions stay loose.
Europe holds a cautious line. Inflation sits above target, so policy easing is constrained. The ECB is unlikely to cut in September. December is uncertain. Futures imply about a 50 percent chance of a cut by year end. President Lagarde prefers to wait and watch. Services disinflation helps margins. Tariff driven cost shocks can still compress earnings. The setup looks like stagflation lite.
Global linkages add risk. U.S. tariffs raise input costs through supply chains. ECB officials, including Schnabel, flag upside inflation risk from this channel. Policy divergence, with a dovish Fed and a cautious ECB, can pressure EUR against USD.
China plays a dual game. It absorbs external shocks with geopolitics while smoothing economic fragility with liquidity and narrative. The bet is on technology leadership to bridge the gap. The risk is a buoyant market over a weak real economy. CICC data shows Chinese exporters absorbed about nine percent of U.S. tariffs. Europe and Southeast Asia absorbed far more. U.S. importers ate the costs and margins compressed. Pass through to consumers can lift prices later. Chinese exports to the U.S. are shrinking. Idle factories threaten domestic stability. The U.S. hit India with a 50 percent tariff over Russian oil. China is moving to exploit the rift and brought India and Russia to a trilateral in Beijing. Capital markets act as a safety valve. Chinese equities hit a ten year high. Liquidity and a $22 trillion rotation from low yielding deposits near one percent are doing the work. Ten year bonds yield about 1.7 percent. Global investors chase China’s tech edge. Without a real rebound, the equity surge risks becoming a liquidity bubble. If exports slide and household demand stays weak, Beijing may lean harder on easing and market engineering.
END
Consistency beats hype. Patience beats FOMO. Timing beats raw alpha. Respect the signals. Position in quality. Let the crowd chase.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.