MarketsBitcoin
|4 min ReadFed cut seen imminent after soft PPI; Bitcoin eyes 150K
Lucca Menezes
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
Economists looked for a 0.3% rise. Instead, the Producer Price Index rose 2.6% year over year, well below the 3.3% expected and down from July’s 3.1%. Core PPI, which removes food, energy, and trade services, increased 2.8% year over year versus the 3.5% expected. The monthly core measure slipped 0.1%. Services prices fell 0.2%, the steepest since April. Goods prices rose 0.1%.
Futures markets now fully price a quarter-point cut. Speculation for a 50 basis point move is building. The Fed paused its easing cycle in January due to tariff uncertainty. Softer inflation and a weakening labor market have shifted the balance toward stimulus.
Government revisions this week estimated the economy created 911,000 fewer jobs in the year through March than previously reported. August hiring nearly stalled. June saw the first job losses in more than four years. The pressure is public. President Donald Trump posted, “JUST OUT: NO INFLATION!!! TOO LATE. MUST LOWER THE RATE, BIG, RIGHT NOW. POWELL IS A TOTAL DISASTER, WHO DOESN’T HAVE A CLUE!!!”
Markets lean dovish as Bitcoin pushes higher
Bitcoin jumped on the print. It ran past 113,000 dollars after the release, off an intraday low of 110,700 dollars. It trades near 113,913 dollars, up 2.37 percent in 24 hours and 2.4 percent in two weeks.
Source: Bitcoin/CryptoNews
The all-time high is 124,128 dollars. Price sits about 8.4 percent below that peak. A decisive policy shift could weaken the dollar and lift liquidity across risk assets. Traders are eyeing 150,000 dollars if cuts accelerate. The next test arrives with CPI on Thursday. It is the last major data point before the Fed’s meeting.
Chair Jerome Powell has signaled that employment risks may outweigh inflation concerns. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows an 88 percent probability of a 25 basis point cut on September 17. Major banks such as Morgan Stanley and Barclays have shifted to an imminent easing view. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last month urged a 50 basis point move after core CPI cooled to 3.1 percent annually. Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek told Bloomberg he expects a strong fourth quarter for digital assets if easing begins.
Accumulation climbs as futures flash caution
Long-term conviction is building. According to CryptoQuant, “accumulator addresses” that buy and never sell now hold a record 266,000 BTC as of September 5.
Source: CryptoQuant
On-chain and technicals say the market sits on a knife’s edge. Bitcoin is riding a multi-year ascending trendline that aligns with the “New Whales Realized Price.” That creates a powerful support zone. Hold it, and the bullish structure survives. Lose it, and a deeper correction opens. Bearish divergences on RSI and MACD point to fading momentum.
Source: CryptoQuant
Futures flows are softer. Whale participation has declined. Smaller traders drive volume. CryptoQuant notes that futures taker sell pressure has outpaced buys, reflecting bearish sentiment. See the data here: https://t.co/Sbx04OK8js
On lower time frames, levels are clear. Analyst Dieguito highlights 114,000 dollars as Value Area High. Above that, price can press toward 117,600 dollars, the point of control. Fail to hold 111,950 dollars, and the move can accelerate toward 107,250 dollars. Chart here: https://x.com/dieguitocharts/status/1965782343756685384?s=46
The read is simple. Easing inflation and a fragile jobs market put the Fed on the clock. If policy turns and Bitcoin holds support, momentum returns fast. Accumulators are loaded. Futures need fresh buyers. Above 114,000 dollars confirms near-term strength. Below 111,950 dollars flips tone bearish. The window is open. Use it before the crowd does.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.