BitcoinMarkets
|4 min ReadDC Turns the Money Hose Back On — What It Means for Bitcoin
Maya Chen
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
Washington just reopened the pipes. After 41 days of data blackout and Treasury gridlock, the Senate pushed through a stopgap bill to fund the U.S. government until January 30, 2026. The measure restores normal auction operations, revives key economic releases, and flips the macro data firehose back on — all of which shape Bitcoin’s liquidity story.
The live bill, H.R. 5371, reactivates the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, putting CPI, PPI, and Treasury refunding data back on schedule. That means traders can finally price rates and inflation with fresh numbers rather than guesswork — a critical reset for Bitcoin, whose liquidity has become deeply tied to real yields and dollar swings.
Inflation data and real yields are back in the driver’s seat
The macro calendar is now loaded. CPI drops Thursday, Nov. 13, at 08:30 ET, followed by Real Earnings, PPI on Nov. 14, and Import and Export Prices on Nov. 18. These reports steer Fed expectations and, by extension, crypto flows.
The 10-year TIPS-implied real yield sits near 1.83%, above mid-year levels. A cooler CPI print would ease yields, loosen financial conditions, and usually lift risk assets — Bitcoin included. When real yields fall, ETF spreads tighten, and crypto’s secondary markets breathe easier.
Treasury operations are also back on script. The quarterly refunding holds 26.8 billion in new cash. The Treasury’s latest refunding statement confirmed steady coupon sizes, reliance on bills for flexibility, and buybacks to smooth market functioning — all of which help limit term-premium shocks as auctions resume.
Liquidity plumbing meets Bitcoin flows
Behind the scenes, the Treasury General Account (TGA) closed at roughly $943 billion on Nov. 7, well above last year’s levels. That large cash pile can drain bank reserves — a headwind to liquidity. A gradual drawdown, however, would quietly support risk assets if it coincides with softer real yields after CPI.
Bill issuance remains the Treasury’s main lever for managing liquidity. A slower rebuild of the TGA, combined with mild inflation data, would turn the liquidity dial slightly positive for crypto in the coming weeks.
ETF flows add another layer. Bitcoin and Ethereum funds saw record inflows in early October before cooling into November. U.S. spot ETFs have since swung to modest outflows. Still, Kaiko data shows market depth improving sharply since 2023, with tighter spreads and reduced slippage. Deeper books mean macro shocks transmit faster — especially when ETF creations or redemptions align with rate shifts.
Three possible paths for Bitcoin liquidity
With Washington back online, Bitcoin’s next move depends on how inflation and Treasury issuance collide.
If CPI lands at or below expectations and refunding clears smoothly, real 10-year yields could slide toward 1.6–1.7%, the dollar could soften, and U.S. Bitcoin ETFs might flip back to net inflows. That’s the “liquidity up” path.
If CPI runs hot or the Treasury rebuilds cash too aggressively through bill issuance, real yields could break above 1.9%, ETFs could bleed again, and Bitcoin would trade defensively.
A choppy middle path is possible if House approval drags or CPI data quirks emerge from the backlog. In that case, macro desks will watch issuance calendars and buyback operations for direction.
The Treasury’s steady-for-now posture anchors supply at 42 billion for 10-years, and $25 billion for 30-years — a setup that keeps CPI at the center of this week’s market pulse.
For Bitcoin, the math is simple. Real yields stay high, liquidity stays tight. If inflation cools and the Treasury draws down cash, liquidity loosens — and the money hose points straight at your Bitcoin bag.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.