17. The Last Bear Market

17. The Last Bear Market From 8,000 yuan down to 900 yuan — what did we go through?

Some things you can never truly understand unless you’ve experienced them firsthand.

Newcomers may not have lived through the last bear market, but they are beginning to feel the cruelty of the current one. You might wonder: what exactly happened back then? How did the veterans survive?

This article shares my own experiences and observations from the last bear market — unpolished, unordered, just as they come to mind.

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I entered during that bear market, so I don’t know much about the ones before. I had read a few posts about Bitcoin crashing from $32 down to $2, but it didn’t sound all that painful.

So I came in, full of confidence, believing I could handle it. Looking back, I did prepare well and avoided fatal mistakes — yet I still nearly broke.

Let’s start with the price action.

In late 2013, Bitcoin peaked around 8,000 yuan. By January 2015, it had collapsed to 900 yuan — nearly a 90% drop. Looking at the chart today, it doesn’t look so cruel. At any point back then, if you had bought and held until now, you’d be sitting on multiples of profit. Outsiders think we should have been happy. Perhaps they even envy those who bought then.

But now look at the 2018 chart: from $20,000 down to $6,000 — only a 70% decline, not 90%. Yet living through it feels brutal. If history repeated, we’d only be halfway through, with the harsher half still ahead. Do you still have confidence?

In reality, anyone buying in 2014 was likely underwater throughout 2015. From early 2014, you’d have had to hold until 2016 to glimpse light again. The worst part wasn’t the magnitude of the drop, but the duration — a grueling two years. Many couldn’t endure. The infamous “480,000-yuan guy” is a classic example.

Like many, I prepared. Aside from dollar-cost averaging, I set aside active funds, split into over ten parts, ready to “catch the bottom” at different stages.

In early 2014, Mt. Gox collapsed, dragging the price from 4,000–5,000 yuan down to 3,000. Rumors of government crackdowns also weighed heavily, often pushing prices into the 2,000s. At that time, 90% of trading volume was in China, so a single phone call to regulators could crash the market.

By the second half of 2014, I subconsciously believed the price would never fall below 2,000 yuan. Many shared this view. Every dip to that level prompted calls of “sell your house and buy Bitcoin.”

While others joked, I acted. I bought heavily around 2,000 yuan, spending over 60% of my funds. My average cost ended up around 2,500 yuan — not far from the eventual bottom. I thought I had done well.

Relative to the 8,000 yuan high, 2,000 already felt like a 75% discount. Most believed downside was limited. Many also used leverage on futures at 2,000 yuan, often making quick gains. One trader reportedly grew 50 BTC into 3,000 BTC — though he ultimately lost it all.

Then came January 2015. With little news (perhaps a minor exchange hack), Bitcoin halved again within days, crashing from 2,000 to 900 yuan.

This drop silenced everything. Chat groups went dead. No one dared to shout “sell your house and buy the dip” anymore.

Many were wiped out, forced to leave. A Bitcoin hedge fund raised 1,000 BTC — liquidated within days. A “Bitcoin savings bank” announced 6,000 BTC stolen — most suspected they’d just blown up on futures.

And altcoins fared worse. Litecoin fell from 380 yuan to 5 yuan. BitShares, once hyped, crashed out of the top 10. Countless coins went to zero.

That’s why I never take seriously claims that some new coin will “surpass Bitcoin.” The market will educate them.

I only held Bitcoin, so my losses were less severe, though still around 60% at peak pain. Depressing, yes. But worse than the losses was watching people around me collapse.

Many who once sang Bitcoin’s praises turned bitter, declaring it worthless. That was when I realized: they never believed in Bitcoin’s vision — they only wanted fiat gains. I wasn’t like them.

That realization changed me deeply. I stopped trying to convince anyone. Before, I wanted others to see the opportunity. After, I decided: this opportunity is mine to seize. Whether others join is their destiny, not my concern.

The shift happened in an instant.

On the day of the bottom, a close friend — one who often praised my writing — suddenly said in chat: “Bitcoin has no value, no use, it’s all a bubble.” I was furious, ready to argue, but stopped. Changing someone’s worldview is near impossible, especially at moments like that.

I felt utterly alone, as if I were the last believer left. That night I drafted an essay titled ​Bitcoin Itself Is the Ultimate Currency Application​. But in the moment of finishing, I decided not to publish.

Why give away this buying opportunity? Better to quietly buy for myself.

Exchanges were congested that day — deposits delayed, trades lagging. I missed the absolute low, but as I bought, I realized: I wasn’t alone. Many others were silently buying too. They weren’t the loud ones who shouted about selling houses — they were the quiet ones.

I believed 900 yuan was absurdly undervalued — irrational. But I couldn’t predict how irrational markets might get, so I held back two bullets, waiting for 500 yuan. That chance never came. 900 was the bottom. Those two bullets remain unspent to this day.

Had I fired them, they’d be worth 40x now. But I don’t regret it. Better to stay alive and always have cash to go long.

In my view, the reason Bitcoin fell to 900 was because too many people were convinced 2,000 was unbreakable. They levered long — and cascading liquidations drove it lower. That’s why the more bullish you are, the less you should touch futures. If all you want is quick fiat, that’s another game.

Few survived the last bear market. Few will survive this one.

So if someday you feel crushed — hopeless, alone, ready to give up — if it seems the whole world has abandoned Bitcoin, and doubt creeps in…

Believe me: you are not alone.