16. A Four-Year Cycle — Not Only the World Cup, but Also Bitcoin

16. A Four-Year Cycle — Not Only the World Cup, but Also Bitcoin

“Sometimes, time changes everything. Sometimes, time changes nothing.” — Bao Yueyang

That day, I was away on a business trip, alone in a noisy bar, sipping beer and watching the World Cup final on a big screen. The next day, Cailu Bitcoin reached out to me, inviting me to reopen the 999 Column. By then I had almost forgotten that four years earlier, I had been a Bitcoin columnist, that I had once interviewed many people in the crypto world, and that I once had a small circle of loyal readers.

The royalties from that time had all been held in Bitcoin and left untouched until today — now worth tens of thousands of dollars, enough for a down payment on an apartment in a fourth-tier city.

Of course, I wasn’t going to restart the column. Life always moves on to new chapters, and the past must remain in the past. But those years, those experiences, still carry memories worth revisiting.

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1 I still remember Christmas Day, 2013. A smog-filled winter afternoon in Beijing. After lunch, I was meditating as usual.

Suddenly, a word popped into my mind: Bitcoin. In that moment, I did something uncharacteristic — I decided I had to find out what that word meant.

This was unusual because up to that point, I had often heard or seen the word, but always in contexts like “bubble,” “scam,” or “greater fool.” I had never considered taking it seriously.

It was, in retrospect, a magical moment. Anyone who meditates knows: whatever thoughts arise, you’re supposed to pull your focus back to your breath. But this time, I didn’t. I stopped meditating, opened my laptop, and began researching…

Looking back, how lucky was that? If I had pulled my attention back, I might have completely missed Bitcoin. Who knows?

A few days later, I put in some of my savings and bought a little Bitcoin. A few days after that, I discovered Litecoin — same functionality, cheaper price — so I bought some of that too. But within days I realized Bitcoin’s value was much deeper. I sold all my Litecoin for Bitcoin, then withdrew it into cold storage.

By then I already knew a huge opportunity lay before me. I was excited — though not yet completely certain. Many questions remained unanswered, so I had to keep learning.

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2 Li Xiaolai once said, “Teaching is the best way to learn. Writing is the best way to sharpen your thinking.” Today I know this isn’t always true — for instance, Nangong Yuan has written plenty but hasn’t grown wiser. But at the time, I believed him wholeheartedly. To learn better, I needed a place to write.

So I reached out to Cailu Bitcoin, asking to become an editor. To my surprise, they replied quickly, and I started the next day. It was part-time, and I worked there for 29 weeks. I remember clearly because my “Weekly Bitcoin News Review” ran for 29 issues. Along the way, I did some interviews and wrote a number of miscellaneous pieces.

My ability to “hodl” without selling even a single coin owes much to this period. To write clearly and ask good questions in interviews, I had to think through Bitcoin deeply. Eventually, I realized that further writing wasn’t helping me learn more — the only way forward was hands-on programming and development. I chose not to go that route. By then I was already convinced: as long as I kept holding Bitcoin, I’d achieve financial freedom. I wanted to focus on doing what I loved, so I stepped away from the crypto circle to work in peace.

For the record, I was never Cailu Bitcoin itself. The boss was excellent — whenever I wrote something controversial, he stood in front and shielded me.

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3 Another reason I left was that the crypto world is a brutal test of human nature. With no regulation, scams and frauds were rampant. I even wrote a piece cataloging the common scams. Today they’re still the same old tricks in new packaging.

Good people enter and turn bad. Li Xiaolai is a typical case. His line “even fools’ consensus is still consensus” revealed his thinking: if fools are destined to be scammed, then why not scam them myself?

This bull cycle, how many old-timers threw themselves into ICOs? How many lent their names to worthless coins? It reminded me of a disturbing metaphor: in a lawless house, ten men gang-rape several girls. With no rules and no punishment, would you join in? “If you don’t, they’ll be raped anyway, so why not?” That’s how some in crypto rationalize their actions.

I’m grateful I didn’t stay and start a venture here. Otherwise, I might have ended up like them.

Newcomers often feel helpless: everywhere you look, it seems there are no good people. But don’t despair — if you look carefully, you’ll still find a few. They’re rare, but they exist.

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4 During my months in the crypto world, I rarely attended events, so I met very few people. If I did, I’ve long forgotten their names and faces. I turned down invitations and meetups. All interviews I conducted were online, never face-to-face.

At first I tried a few events anonymously, but found them dull — food, drinks, empty speeches, hype. Some even felt like pyramid-scheme rallies. Waste of time. Later, I stopped attending altogether. I had no intention of starting a crypto business, so networking was meaningless for me.

At one point, I dreamed of building a pure Bitcoin community — just for true believers. But I realized it wasn’t realistic. Genuine Bitcoin loyalists are few, and many who claim “Bitcoin is the safest” spend their time speculating on altcoins. Others looked like loyalists but misunderstood Bitcoin fundamentally — many of them later became part of the “Bcash” camp.

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5 Four years later, I’ve basically reached financial freedom. “Basically” because I don’t sell or spend Bitcoin — so in practice, my life hasn’t changed much. I actually work harder now, hoping to do meaningful things. Because once you’re free, your purpose must grow too.

Li Xiaolai wrote a book titled ​The Road to Financial Freedom​. I wonder how many readers truly achieved freedom. If I wrote it, it would be just two words: ​Hodl Bitcoin​.

I’ve written many pieces about hodling. Did anyone actually hodl because of me? I don’t know. But then I thought: why train competitors? Better to keep quiet.

Still, I continue to hodl. Even though, at today’s prices, what I can accumulate in a year is less than what I used to accumulate in a month, I’ve built the habit. Spare cash feels “wrong” unless converted to Bitcoin. It remains the best investment choice. Slower than before, yes, but compared to four years from now? Future generations will envy it.

Twenty years ago, everyone knew the internet — but few saw the opportunity. Today, everyone knows Bitcoin — but still only a few truly recognize the chance.

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6 Back in that bar, the World Cup final soon entered garbage time. As French fans sang, a strange thought crossed my mind: Could Satoshi Nakamoto have been a football fan? Is that why he set Bitcoin’s cycle at four years? Could he be, like me, in some bar with a beer, watching a match already decided?

The next World Cup will be exciting. The next four years of Bitcoin, even more so.