MarketsAltcoins
|4 min ReadZcash: A Hedge Against BTC?
Jax Morales
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
Zcash is quietly becoming the best-performing asset of the year against Bitcoin.
Messari’s 2026 thesis highlights a critical vulnerability in the current crypto hierarchy: Bitcoin is a financial panopticon. Every transaction is broadcast on a public ledger, and 24% of the supply sits in centralized custody. For sovereign capital, Bitcoin has become a surveillance beacon rather than a privacy tool.
The massive repricing of ZEC reflects a flight to safety. Smart money is buying the only asset that can "air-gap" wealth from the surveillance state.
The Custody Trap
If the government wants to seize your Bitcoin, they don't need your private keys. They just need to call the custodian.
Approximately 5.1 million BTC (24% of supply) is held by centralized entities like Coinbase and BlackRock. This creates a single point of failure. A single executive order could freeze a quarter of the Bitcoin supply overnight, mirroring the 1933 gold confiscation.
Zcash solves this via the shielded pool. It breaks the chain of custody. Once funds enter the pool, they vanish from the visible ledger. Regulators can see money go in, but they cannot see where it goes or who owns it.
The CBDC Catalyst
The urgency for privacy is accelerating because the alternative is programmable control.
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are being rolled out globally. Unlike cash, CBDCs allow the issuer to dictate where and when you spend your money. We have already seen this weaponized:
Canada: Froze trucker protest wallets.
Nigeria: Debanked activists.
USA: Systematically debanking crypto firms (Operation Choke Point).
In this environment, Zcash is the only definitive opt-out. It combines the scarcity of Bitcoin with the anonymity of physical cash.
Frictionless Privacy
The "Zcash is hard to use" narrative is outdated.
The infrastructure has quietly matured. The Zashi wallet now enables shielded transactions with mobile-friendly speed, thanks to the Sapling upgrade which reduced memory usage by 97%.
More importantly, NEAR Intents now allow users to swap BTC directly into shielded ZEC without touching a CEX. The technical barriers to entry have collapsed just as the demand for privacy is spiking.
The Decoupling Signal
The most important chart for traders is below.
ZEC’s correlation to BTC has collapsed to 0.24, while its beta has hit all-time highs.
This is a decoupling event. ZEC is no longer following Bitcoin's macro moves; it is trading on its own idiosyncratic "privacy premium." The market is valuing ZEC not as a competitor to Bitcoin, but as a necessary hedge against Bitcoin's transparency.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.