Daily Analysis
|6 min ReadYear-End Volatility: $23.8B Options Expiry Shakes the "Extreme Fear" Market | bitnews.day
A
Anonymous Author
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
📌 Executive Summary
Quant Sentiment: The Fear & Greed Index has dipped to 20, marking 14 consecutive days of "Extreme Fear"—a streak longer than the 2022 FTX collapse aftermath.
The "Unpinning" Event: Today marks the largest options expiry in history, with $23.8 Billion in notional value settling on Deribit. Traders expect the "Max Pain" suppression effect to lift after 08:00 UTC, potentially releasing BTC from its $85k-$90k cage.
Security Alert: A critical vulnerability in Trust Wallet (v2.68) has resulted in a confirmed $7M loss today. Please see our security tip below.
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1. Market Sentiment: The Great Exhale
Today's Fear & Greed Index is 20 (Extreme Fear).
Data Insight: The Implied Volatility (IV) for near-dated options has spiked to 65%, while the Put/Call Ratio sits at 0.72. This divergence suggests that while the crowd is fearful (buying puts), smart money is positioning for a post-expiry volatility expansion.
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2. Major Industry Flash: News That Matters
Derivatives Dominance: The $23.8B expiry represents ~27% of total open interest. Historically, prices tend to move 5-8% in the 48 hours following such a massive settlement as market makers unhedge their positions.
RWA Resilience: While the broader market is red, the Real-World Asset (RWA) sector index is up 1.2% today. Tokenized treasury platforms like Ondo and BlackRock’s BUIDL are seeing net inflows of $15M daily.
Trust Wallet Exploit: The $7M exploit specifically targeted the browser extension's WebAssembly (Wasm) module.
🛡️ Security Action: How to check if you are safe?
If you use the Trust Wallet Browser Extension (v2.68), do not transact. Go to Revoke.cash to check for unauthorized allowances or read our internal guide to disconnect suspicious dApps immediately.
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3. Mainstream Assets: Price & Technical Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC): $88,150 (+0.8% 24h)
The Structure: BTC is currently pinned exactly at the Max Pain price of $88,000.
Order Book Data: A sell wall of 2,100 BTC is stacked at $90,000. If the post-expiry flow breaks this level, algorithmic buying could trigger a rapid run to $94k. Conversely, the bid support at $85,500 remains thin (<400 BTC).
Indicator: Daily MACD is flashing a potential bullish crossover, but it requires a daily close above $89,200 to confirm.
Ethereum (ETH): $2,975 (+0.5% 24h)
The Laggard: ETH continues to underperform, trading 1.5% below its 20-day moving average.
Gas Data: Network fees remain at a multi-year low of 5 Gwei. The lack of on-chain activity (burning) means ETH supply is growing at an annualized rate of 0.4%, adding sell pressure.
Critical Level: Bulls must defend $2,900. A break below opens the trapdoor to $2,720.
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4. Hot Narratives: Utility Over Hype
Winner: DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infra): Projects like Helium and Hivemapper are showing strength, up 3-5% today. Investors are rotating out of speculative Memecoins and into "Cash Flow Coins" (DePIN) for end-of-year portfolio rebalancing.
Loser: NFT Sector: Blue-chip NFT floor prices have crashed 12% in the last 24 hours. The liquidity needed to sustain high JPEG prices has evaporated.
Trend Watch: SocialFi apps are seeing a 20% spike in daily active users (DAU) as the community discusses security best practices following the wallet hack.
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5. Strategy: Should I Buy Bitcoin After Options Expiry?
The Trap: Do not trade the initial volatility spike at 08:00 UTC. It is often a "fake-out" designed to liquidate over-leveraged traders.
The Opportunity: Watch for a re-test of $86,500 that holds. If volume confirms the bounce, long positions targeting $91,200 offer a 1:3 Risk/Reward ratio.
Recommendation: Update your wallet security immediately and wait for the dust to settle post-expiry.
⚠️ Disclaimer: bitnews.day analysis is for informational purposes only. Manage your risk.
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