Markets
|3 min ReadTraders blame tariffs for crash, but Santiment sees deeper risks
Maya Chen
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
Retail looks for a single cause
Crypto retail rushed to point the finger at one headline. After Friday’s slide, traders said the 100 percent China tariff announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump triggered the flush. Santiment said that is classic behavior. “This is typical ‘rationalization’ behavior from retailers, who need to point to a singular event as the reason for a cataclysmic downturn in crypto,” Santiment said in a Saturday report. Santiment report
The chatter spiked across social feeds. The crowd “quickly jumped to collectively come to a consensus as to what the flush could be attributed to,” Santiment added. Everybody knows it. Narratives move fast in a panic.
Leverage and liquidations deepen the drop
Analysts said tariffs were a catalyst, not the whole story. The Kobeissi Letter pointed to “excessive leverage and risk.” Long positioning was heavy. About 2.5 billion in shorts, nearly a 7 to 1 ratio. Bitcoin fell more than 10 percent in 24 hours, with the BTC/USDT futures pair on Binance printing as low as $102,000 after the tariff comments.
At publication time, Bitcoin was around $109,910, down 10.06 percent in seven days. It was a huge shakeout. Incredible speed.
What moves sentiment next
Santiment said U.S.–China developments will be central for retail trading decisions in the short term. If talks between Trump and Xi improve and turn into positive news, retail sentiment likely gets better. If tensions escalate, brace for darker calls. “Expect for the ‘Bitcoin sub-100 K’ prediction floodgates to begin opening up,” Santiment said. “Bitcoin, whether we like it or not, is behaving more like a risk asset than a safe haven during times of country tensions.”
Fear rose fast. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 27, a “Fear” reading on Saturday. That is a 37-point drop from Friday’s “Greed” at 64, the lowest level in nearly six months.
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