BitcoinMarkets
|2 min ReadTom Lee says Bitcoin headwinds can flip to tailwinds
Lucca Menezes
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
Bitcoin slipped below its 200-day moving average, a level traders watch closely. The move came as macro headwinds piled up. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee tied the drop to the U.S. government shutdown and a hawkish Fed. “Bitcoin is very sensitive to market liquidity and also perceptions about risk appetite,” Lee told CNBC. “Over the past couple of weeks, I think there have been headwinds building right from the government shutdown to a hawkish Fed cut.”
He pointed to a cascade of crypto deleveraging, including the major event on October 10. Lee called it the largest in crypto history, a cleanup that still leaves ripple effects weeks later. Selling pressure met tight liquidity. Risk assets felt it. Crypto felt it more.
“Headwinds become tailwinds” if the macro breaks right
Lee stayed constructive. He argued that broader financial market indicators lean positive. If stocks are up for six straight months, he said, history suggests November tends to be flat or positive. That would be a supportive backdrop for crypto. “Headwinds become tailwinds when you can resolve these things,” he said. Confidence needs time. Liquidity needs time. But the setup can improve, and when it does, Bitcoin moves fast. Everybody knows it.
Market action shows the first sparks. After a bruising sell-off, Bitcoin bounced from Wednesday’s intraday low of 103,400, according to CoinGecko data. An on-chain voice, Willy Woo, wrote in a tweet that “liquidity behind Bitcoin is starting to make a recovery,” suggesting the backdrop is no longer one-way bearish.
Price checks and what prediction markets say
Despite the technical damage, sentiment in prediction markets is holding up. On Myriad, launched by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users put a 64 percent chance on Bitcoin revisiting 85,000. Confidence extends to Ethereum. Users assign a 63 percent chance that it will hit 2,500.
Spot prices reflected a modest relief rally. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin and Ethereum were up 1.3 percent and 2.6 percent, trading near 3,403, per CoinGecko.
Lee’s message is simple. Macro drove the break. Macro can drive the bounce. The October 10 deleveraging was historic, and its aftershocks linger, but as liquidity returns and fear fades, those same forces can turn into tailwinds. That is when disciplined buyers get paid with beautiful timing.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.