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|4 min ReadTom Lee Kills the Four Year Bitcoin Cycle Myth in Dubai
Tariq Al-Saidi
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
The vibe at the Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai was dark. Many traders were ready to pack their bags and quit after a brutal few months. But Tom Lee took the stage to tell them they are wrong. He believes the "Crypto Supercycle" is still alive and well. Lee is not just talking. He is buying. As the Chairman of BitMine, he is leading a massive charge to own 5% of all Ethereum in existence. He thinks the market hit its floor in late 2025. Now he expects a violent move up as the old rules of the game go into the trash.
The New Rulebook for the 2026 Crypto Supercycle
The street has lived by the four-year Bitcoin cycle for a long time. It was a simple clock based on the halving. But Tom Lee says that clock is broken. The old indicators like the ISM and the copper-to-gold ratio have stopped following their historical patterns. This means the Bitcoin halving is no longer the main driver of price. Instead, we are entering a "Macro Pivot" where institutional demand and sovereign reserves set the floor. If Bitcoin breaks a new high in January 2026, the four-year cycle is officially dead.
Lee sees Bitcoin reaching $250,000 in the coming months. He bases this on the fact that the recent sell-off was just a massive de-leveraging event. It was a price shock that cleared out the weak hands. But the big players like BlackRock and JPMorgan are not leaving. In fact, they are digging in. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF is already a top earner for the firm. Now JPMorgan is moving its own JPM Coin onto the Ethereum network. The street is not running away. It is rebuilding the entire financial system on a chain.
Ethereum Wins the Global Financial Infrastructure War
Lee calls 2025 the "1971 Moment" for Ethereum. This refers to when the dollar left the gold standard and changed the world. Today, Ethereum is doing the same for finance. It has won the smart contract war. Every major bank is now looking to move stocks, bonds, and real estate onto the network. This is the "Alchemy of 5%" that BitMine is chasing. They already own 3.97 million ETH, which is over 3.2% of the total supply. They are taking the supply at lightning speed because they know what comes next.
We believe the real value explosion for Ethereum will happen in early 2026. This is when "Sovereign Stacks" from national governments will likely begin to mirror the Bitcoin reserve movement. If Ethereum becomes the global base layer for finance, the price targets are staggering. Lee suggests that if the ETH/BTC ratio returns to its peak, Ethereum could hit $22,000. But if it truly takes over the world's infrastructure, we could see a $62,000 price tag. At today's prices, Ethereum is a massive steal.
The Rise of the New Digital Bank Treasury
The next phase of the bull run is about more than just owning coins. It is about owning the yield. This is where "Digital Asset Treasuries" or DATs come in. Companies like MicroStrategy and BitMine are the new giants of the crypto world. They act as a bridge between the old Wall Street and the new DeFi trenches. They don't just hold assets. They monetize them. BitMine is already building the "Made in America Validator Network" to earn millions in staking rewards every day. This creates a "Digital Credit Vehicle" that traditional investors can trade just like a regular stock.
BitMine is currently one of the most active stocks in the United States. It trades more volume than giants like Boeing or General Electric. This shows that the market wants exposure to the "Institutional Moat" that these treasuries provide. By 2026, we expect these firms to dominate the application layer of the internet. They will own the float and they will own the security of the network. The era of simple retail speculation is over. The era of the sovereign crypto bank has officially begun.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.