Prediction Market
|3 min ReadThe "Sybil Farm" Behind a 8,300x Polymarket Win
Lucca Menezes
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 20, 2026
The dream of turning lunch money into a fortune just got reality-checked. A Polymarket trader named @ascetic0x went viral after allegedly turning $12 into over $100,000. The claim: 16 consecutive all-in bets on Bitcoin's short-term price action.
The narrative was perfect: A small retail trader using "skill and chart analysis" to compound winning bets into life-changing wealth. The post garnered 4.2 million views, hailing a new trading god.
The "Moses" Audit: Survivorship Bias
The euphoria didn't last. On-chain sleuth Moses dismantled the claim, alleging the performance is a textbook case of manufactured Survivorship Bias.
The Accusation: The trader didn't start with one account. They funded hundreds of "burner wallets" with $10-$20 each.
1. Place high-risk bets across all accounts.
2. Watch 99% of them go to zero.
3. Take the single account that survived the statistical gauntlet and present it as "skill."
The Graveyard of Burner Accounts
Evidence surfaced showing a cluster of affiliated accounts created 7 months ago. Most flatlined at $0 or busted after reaching $1,000. Only the "survivor" broke $2,900 and continued the streak.
Furthermore, Moses flagged suspicious order flow, suggesting the trader used wash trading (betting against their own alt accounts) to force liquidity at desired prices. This is the "analyst" equivalent of buying 10,000 lottery tickets and claiming you knew the winning numbers all along.
If you see a trader win 16 coin flips in a row, don't ask for their strategy. Ask to see the graveyard of accounts that landed on tails.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.