MarketsBitcoinEthereum
|3 min ReadS&P rates Strategy B-, stable outlook for Bitcoin treasurer
Lucca Menezes
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
S&P Global Ratings handed Strategy a B- credit rating, squarely in speculative territory with a stable outlook. The agency called out the company’s “high bitcoin concentration, narrow business focus, weak risk-adjusted capitalization, and low US dollar liquidity” in a review published Monday, and said the outlook assumes prudent management of convertible debt and preferred dividends, potentially with additional debt issuance. The full note is here: S&P Global.
Junk-grade label, first-of-its-kind benchmark
Strategy has built a 640,808 BTC treasury mainly through equity and debt financing. S&P flagged an “inherent currency mismatch.” The firm’s debt is due in U.S. dollars, while much of its dollar reserves support a software business that runs near breakeven on earnings and cash flow. It is bold. It is concentrated. And everybody knows it.
On par with Sky Protocol, far from investment grade
This is the first time a Bitcoin-treasury-focused company has received an S&P assessment, creating a TradFi yardstick for BTC-centric balance sheets. Strategy’s B- matches the score S&P assigned in August to decentralized stablecoin issuer Sky Protocol (formerly MakerDAO), which was cited for high depositor concentration, centralized governance, and weak capitalization.
To climb out of “junk,” Strategy needs to move up six notches to BBB-. Markets are not panicking. The stock was one of Nasdaq’s best performers in 2024, rallying 430 percent. It is down 13 percent year to date in 2025, per Google Finance data. Shares even rose 2.27 percent on Monday, suggesting the rating did not dent sentiment.
What must improve, and what could go wrong
S&P said an upgrade in the next 12 months is unlikely. But it could raise the rating if Strategy improves U.S. dollar liquidity, reduces reliance on convertibles, and proves capital markets access remains strong even when Bitcoin retraces. That is the test. Can the company refinance in a cold market and keep the treasury intact.
There is real risk on timing. S&P warned that convertible maturities could land during a period of “severe Bitcoin stress,” forcing sales of BTC at depressed prices. The rating could fall if capital markets access weakens, squeezing the firm’s ability to fund its strategy.
Strategy has defined its brand by betting huge on Bitcoin. S&P has now defined the credit risk. Between the two sits execution: refinance smartly, raise dollars when it is hard, and keep the treasury strategy alive when volatility bites. Tremendous upside if it works. Tough consequences if it does not.
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