Solana
|5 min ReadSolana’s rally is real as big buyers take control
Maya Chen
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
The window still open
Solana is ripping. Today is 2025.09.18, five hours after the latest surge. Money is moving, and it is not retail leading. Public companies are buying. Treasuries now hold 17.112 million SOL. That buying pressure hits price. It feels like the hold-shuffle we saw with Bitcoin and Ethereum when ETFs landed. Positions change. Power shifts. If you wait, you chase.
Follow the money, see the squeeze
Supply tells the story. Total SOL is about 610 million. Staked SOL is about 408 million. That is 66.9 percent locked. Selling pressure is capped. Support is strong.
Validator power is concentrated at the top, yet still spread enough to avoid a single choke point. Helius, Binance Staking, and Galaxy together control over 26 percent. Helius alone sits on 13.22 million SOL. That is 9.76 percent. Ledger by Figment, Kiln, Coinbase, and Everstake each sit in the 3 to 6 percent zone.
DeFi adds depth but overlaps with staking. TVL across Solana sits near 52.89 million SOL. Much of that is in liquid staking tokens like JitoSOL, mSOL, and bSOL. Count it carefully. It is not all fresh lockup.
Foundation and Labs stake a chunk through validator accounts. The share is not disclosed. It sits inside the 408 million staked total.
There is a legacy overhang. FTX and Alameda bought heavy in the early days. After the 2022 collapse, those assets went into court process. Since November 2023, their addresses redeemed and moved 8.98 million SOL. About 4.18 million SOL remains staked. That is 0.69 percent. It unlocks in phases through 2028. Markets watch it, but it is managed and paced.
Treasuries and ETPs are rewriting demand
Corporate treasuries are here. As of September 16, seventeen entities hold 17.112 million SOL. That is 2.8 percent of supply. About 7.4 million SOL from that group is staked. Unstaked treasury float is about 9.71 million SOL. That is 1.59 percent.
Leaders include Forward Industries with 6.822 million SOL, about 1.63 billion dollars. Sharps Technology holds 2.14 million SOL, about 510 million dollars. DeFi Development Corp holds 2.028 million SOL, about 480 million dollars. Upexi holds 2.00 million SOL, about 470 million dollars. Galaxy Digital holds 1.35 million SOL, about 320 million dollars.
ETPs amplify the bid. 21Shares ASOL is about 1.53 billion dollars. CoinShares SLNC is about 699 million dollars. At 200 to 260 dollars per SOL, that implies 8.57 to 11.15 million SOL combined. REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF, ticker SSK, launched in July 2025 in the United States. It mixes spot SOL with on-chain staking yield. AUM is about 274 million dollars. About 56.7 percent sits in spot SOL. That is about 0.598 to 0.777 million SOL at the same price band. Together, these spot ETPs hold about 9.17 to 11.92 million SOL. That is 1.50 to 1.96 percent of supply. Average near 1.73 percent. This is patient capital. It does not churn like traders.
Whales and exchanges fill the rest. One top address holds over 5 million SOL, about 1 percent. There are about 9.15 million addresses on Solana today. The top 100 addresses hold about 22.8 percent. The rest spreads across long tail users, staking pools, and exchange wallets. Many whale coins are already staked, so float is tighter than it looks.
No government or sovereign fund has disclosed direct SOL holdings.
The setup, the narrative, the targets
Narrative powers flows. Matt Hougan of Bitwise says Solana sits in a key window. ETP approvals and corporate treasuries rise together. Bitcoin and Ethereum showed what that mix can do. Raoul Pal calls Solana “stupidly bullish” on a long-term structure. Trader Ansem says corporate treasuries entering Solana DeFi would be a powerful boost. Mert Mumtaz of Helius Labs calls for 150 percent upside over five years. Short term noise is just noise.
Price context matters. Spot sits near 238 dollars. Hyperliquid liquidation maps show the path of pain. First target is 250 to 275 dollars. That is the first band of short liquidations. Break it, and speed picks up. Second target is 275 to 315 dollars. That is the densest short stack. Clear it, and you squeeze harder. In a bull tape, with ETPs and treasuries in sync, a push to 300 to 400 dollars is on the table if flows keep coming.
Here is the truth. Supply is locked. Treasuries are buying. ETPs are steady. The crowd is waking up. Cycles reward those who move early and size with conviction. Fortune favors the bold.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.