MarketsOpinionAltcoins
|3 min ReadRaoul Pal: The 4-Year Cycle Is Dead
Lucca Menezes
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
Retail traders are bleeding out. They bought the 2025 narrative, leveraged their homes, and got slaughtered. Host Kevin voiced the collective panic of the "ADHD generation" who feel betrayed by the flat charts. But Raoul Pal didn't offer comfort; he offered a autopsy. The industry-standard four-year cycle is officially broken. Pal’s thesis has shifted to a five-year macro debt cycle. The liquidity needed to send your bags to the moon isn't missing—it’s being hoarded by the government until 2026.
The Treasury Is Choking The Market
Kevin questioned the pain; Pal exposed the mechanic. The US government nuked liquidity to manage its own checking account (the TGA). This is a silent rug pull by the state. But the pivot is inevitable. The US Treasury must roll over $10 trillion in debt. They cannot do this in a liquidity desert. Pal predicts a forced injection via ESLR changes—a regulatory trick that allows banks to gorge on unlimited Treasuries without penalty. This isn't just printing money; it is force-feeding the banking system.
The timeline is non-negotiable. The debt maturity wall hits its peak crisis point in 2026. That is when the system breaks, and that is when they flood the zone. The current chop is just noise designed to shake out weak hands before the M2 money supply explosion.
SUI: The Lazy Man’s 100x
While retail chases meme coins into oblivion, Pal is sitting on his hands. He revealed his "Minimum Regret Portfolio" strategy: buy the fastest horse and do nothing. His pick is SUI. Despite the volatility, Pal’s internal models scream that SUI is 80% undervalued against Solana. This isn't based on vibes; it’s Metcalfe’s Law. The user growth and transaction volume on SUI are outpacing Solana's early cycle metrics, yet the price lags.
Kevin played the skeptic, citing the "online hate" from bagholders. Pal laughed it off. He isn't trading the weekly chart. He is betting on the collateralization of the internet. The winners of this cycle won't be the day traders; it will be the ones who hold the Layer 1 infrastructure that absorbs the coming liquidity shock.
The 2026 Sovereign Pivot
The conclusion is terrifyingly simple. If you sell now out of boredom, you become the exit liquidity for the state. The 2026 cycle extension isn't just a delay; it is a structural integration event. The "Clarity Act" and stablecoin regulations are being timed to coincide with the Treasury's liquidity release.
We are witnessing the setup for the "Financial Layer" of the global web. By 2026, crypto won't just be a speculative casino; it will be the plumbing for the US debt market via stablecoins. The five-year cycle aligns the crypto market with the global sovereign debt refinancing schedule. The wait is painful, but the payoff is generational.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.