Markets
|3 min ReadPowell splits FOMC on 2025 cuts as crypto eyes flows
Maya Chen
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
The window is open
The Fed just cut. Markets are shifting. Money will move fast. If you blink, you chase.
The setup
On Wednesday the Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points. This is the first cut of 2025. The target range is now 4% to 4.25%. Chair Jerome Powell said the Federal Open Market Committee is split on what comes next in 2025. Ten of the 19 members see two or more cuts this year. Nine see fewer. In many cases, they see no more cuts at all.
He framed the decision as a balance. Jobs are softening, yet prices still run hot. The labor market is weakening, as seen in this post on X. Inflation remains elevated by the Fed’s standards.
Powell pointed to the Fed’s quarterly outlook. The median path in the Summary of Economic Projections puts rates at 3.6% by the end of 2025. Then 3.4% by the end of 2026. Then 3.1% by the end of 2027. He reminded everyone these are probabilities, not promises.
The signal
Rate cuts compress yields. That is oxygen for risk assets. Equities breathe. Crypto sprints. Roughly 7.2 trillion to 7.5 trillion sits in money market funds. Those yields will start to fall. Matt Mena at 21Shares says that cash will look for better returns. Stocks. Alternatives. Crypto.
He sees Bitcoin setting up for a Q4 run. He expects new highs above about 124,000. Traders are leaning that way. On Polymarket, 62% think BTC hits 130,000 in 2025.
What it means now
This is a playbook. Falling rates, rising appetite, and a wall of cash ready to rotate. The Fed may debate the number of cuts. That is fine. We do not need certainty. We need direction. Today we have it.
If you wait for perfect clarity, you miss the move. Capital moves first. Headlines catch up later. The door is open right now.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.