BitcoinOpinion
|4 min ReadCheap Energy Is The Secret Weapon For Bitcoin Supremacy
Jax Morales
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
The United States just grabbed Venezuela. The media calls it an intervention. Arthur Hayes calls it a macroeconomic masterclass. It is not about democracy. It is about the price of gas. If you control the oil, you control the inflation data. And if you control inflation, you can print infinite money without crashing the economy.
Politicians have one job: winning the midterms. To win in November 2026, Trump needs Americans to feel rich. That requires a booming stock market and rising nominal GDP.
The Political Death Spiral
Trump has a problem. The Republicans need to hold the House of Representatives. Right now, the data shows the Democrats have a real shot at taking it back. If the economy slows down, Trump loses his power.
He needs to run the economy hot. He needs to issue debt and force the Treasury to spend. But when you expand credit, you usually get higher prices at the pump. The average voter does not care about geopolitics. They care if gas costs too much.
History has a 10% rule: If gas prices rise 10% in the three months before an election, the ruling party loses. Trump knows this. He needs Venezuelan oil flowing into Gulf Coast refineries immediately. Cheap oil acts as a shield against inflation.
The Recession Risk
The stakes couldn't be higher. Statistical models show that if the US avoids a recession, Team Red has a dominant chance of retaining power. But if a recession hits, they are finished.
Therefore, the Money Printer is not an option; it is a survival requirement. The US government will do anything—including seizing sovereign oil fields—to keep the engine running.
The "Trump Is A Socialist" Paradox
Hayes drops a controversial truth bomb: Trump is the most socialist president since FDR.
Traders must stop being "schmucks" about political labels. Forget capitalism versus communism. No government practices these "isms" in pure form anymore. They all bastardize them to stay in power. Trump printed trillions in 2020 and handed cash directly to the people. He will do it again.
The strategy is simple: Expand credit, deficit spend, and force the Fed to buy the bonds. This is the Liquidity Supercycle. As long as oil prices (controlled via Venezuela) don't spike, the money printer stays on. This is rocket fuel for Bitcoin.
The Brutal Truth About Trading
In a rare moment of transparency, Hayes opens his books for a brutal audit. He admits his win rate for 2025 was a measly 33%. Most traders would be broke with those numbers, but Hayes is up. The secret was simple mathematics: his winners paid out 8.5x his average loss.
He printed millions on high-conviction plays like HYPE, BTC, and PENDLE. But he is also honest about his failures. He admits to "pissing away" significant profits chasing memecoins like PUMP. The lesson he is taking into 2026 is sharp: cut the gambling, return to high-conviction macro bets.
The 2026 Bet: Privacy Beta
This discipline leads directly to his core thesis for the new year. Hayes is selling Bitcoin to fund high-risk privacy plays. In a world of digital surveillance and government overreach—exemplified by the seizure of Venezuela—privacy becomes the ultimate luxury asset.
He is betting big on ZEC (Zcash) as the "privacy beta." The Maelstrom fund is aggressively rotating into this sector. While the retail herd watches the majors, Hayes believes the real multipliers are hiding in the assets that the state cannot track.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.