BitcoinMarkets
|5 min ReadBitcoin’s battleground: $114K unlocks upside, $108K risks a slide
Maya Chen
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
The range that decides the next leg
Two prices control the board. Regain $114,000 and momentum returns. Lose $108,000 and pressure deepens. Bitcoin is chopping between $110,000 and $116,000 after August’s pullback. Dip buyers defended $107,000. Short-term holders capped the bounce with profit taking. ETF inflows have cooled to roughly plus or minus 500 BTC a day. On-chain liquidity is still constructive, but it is fading. Derivatives are doing more of the heavy lifting while spot demand rests.
Where the supply sits
Cost basis clusters define this fight. High-price buyers over the last three months sit near $113,800. Last-month dip buyers cluster around $112,800. Short-term holders over the past six months anchor near $108,300. Flip $113,800 and those late buyers get back in profit. That invites follow-through. Lose $108,300 and short-term holders fall back into loss. That can trigger fresh supply and open the lane toward the next major cluster near $93,000.
Experienced short-term holders are taking profits into $114,000. The 3 to 6 month cohort realized about $189 million per day during the rebound, roughly 79 percent of all STH profits. They bought early in the spring drawdown and are now distributing into strength.
Recent high-price buyers are realizing losses too, adding resistance. Holders up to 3 months old booked as much as $152 million in daily losses during the bounce. That mirrors stress seen in April 2024 and January 2025. A sustained reclaim above $114,000 is how confidence returns and fresh capital follows.
Net realized profit as a share of market cap peaked near 0.065 percent on a 90-day average during the August bounce, then trended lower. Flows still help as long as price holds $108,000. A deeper slip could drain that support.
ETF fuel is lighter. Since early August, U.S. spot ETF net flows hover around plus or minus 500 BTC per day. That is far below the waves that powered earlier advances. Less TradFi demand makes the structure more fragile.
Derivatives set the tone
With spot quieter, futures and options are absorbing pressure. Volume delta skew recovered off $108,000 as seller power waned on major venues like Binance and Bybit. Futures traders helped catch the fall.
The three-month annualized basis stays below 10 percent. Leverage demand is steady, not extreme. That looks like accumulation, not froth.
Perpetual futures volumes remain subdued. No reckless leverage spikes. Rallies built on calmer funding tend to last longer.
Options are now central to risk control. Open interest is at all-time highs as institutions pair spot and ETFs with hedges. Protective puts, covered calls, and defined-risk structures are common.
Implied volatility keeps grinding lower. A deeper market sells vol, which presses IV down and smooths price action compared with past cycles.
Calls outnumber puts across the top strike stacks. Positioning is biased to the upside while still paying for downside protection. That mix supports a healthier, risk-managed structure.
Bitcoin stands at a crossroads. Reclaim and hold $114,000 to rebuild confidence and invite flows. Lose $108,000 and short-term holders feel pain, with $93,000 the next big shelf. Derivatives can stabilize the path. Broader demand must return to drive the next sustained leg.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.