MarketsBitcoin
|5 min ReadBitcoin’s 200-Day Flip Sparks New Bear Market Fears
Maya Chen
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
Alpha Briefing: Bitcoin’s 200-day trend has turned bearish and a death cross has formed, raising fresh fears that the bull market may be over as BTC trades around 88,000 and reclaim the 92,000 zone.
A major long-term trend gauge for Bitcoin has finally turned against the bulls, and it has traders asking the hardest question in this market: is the bull run done, or is this just a brutal reset before the next leg higher?
The signal in focus is the 200-day trend for Bitcoin. It has rolled over into bearish territory, according to crypto analyst “Crypto₿irb,” who said that from a strict technical point of view, the bull market is already finished. He pointed to what he called a persistent trend shift, backed by the percentage of price move, volume spikes, above-average volatility, time spent below the 200-day trend, and weakening market breadth.
In his view, all of that adds up to a setup where the next year could be shaped by declines rather than new highs.
200-Day Trend Turns Down As Indicators Stack Up
The 200-day trend line is not a simple moving average. In this analysis it is a visual tool used to connect key price points and measure how strong the underlying trend is and when breakouts really matter.
Alongside that, the classic 200-day moving average has also rolled over. It started to tilt down after a so-called death cross, when the 200-day moving average dipped below the shorter-term 50-day moving average. Traders watch that cross closely as a long-term support marker and a potential signal that a bull phase has flipped into a bear phase.
These are not one-off blips. They are the kind of slow, heavy indicators that big funds and long-term players respect, which is why they are getting so much attention now.
“There is no debate, Bitcoin is in a bear market,” Markus Thielen from 10x Research told Cointelegraph, adding that the current move looks like a bear market reversal rally rather than the start of a fresh bull cycle.
A growing number of analysts are lining up behind that view. They see the long-term uptrend broken, the biggest momentum indicators rolling over, and sentiment cooling after a powerful run.
Not Everyone Is Ready To Call Full Bear
Other voices in the market are more cautious about slapping the full bear label on this cycle.
Henrik Andersson, chief investment officer at crypto asset fund manager Apollo Capital, agreed that the buying pressure from digital asset treasuries that dominated the first half of the year is fading. That bid is no longer there in the same size. But he pushed back on the idea that this automatically means a full-blown bear market.
He argued that the path from here will be driven by risk assets as a whole, not just crypto in isolation, and that being selective is more important than ever. In other words, this may be a market where certain names thrive even while the broad index chops or bleeds.
“The direction going forward will be determined by risk assets in general, and being selective as an investor will be more important than ever.”
That is a very different tone from the classic all-or-nothing bull vs bear debate. It suggests a more mature, more fragmented market where Bitcoin and other large caps can still move with global liquidity, even if some of the easy trend signals have flipped red.
Bulls Look For Relief As Key Levels Emerge
On shorter time frames, some traders see reasons not to panic.
Crypto analyst “Skew” said that recent price action is “looking a lot more constructive here for the bulls” on the four-hour chart. In his read, momentum is tilting back to the upside, as long as buyers can keep pressing and the market does not roll over again.
He flagged 90,000 to $92,000 the key battle zone, the first real area where the market will fight over the structural trend.
Bitcoin has already tested that zone, coming just short of 91,200, not far from the middle of that range.
For now, the message from the charts is clear and cold. The big long-term trend tools have turned, and some heavy hitters are calling a bear market. At the same time, others see a choppy, selective environment where bulls still have room to maneuver if they can defend the new support lines and push back through resistance.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.