BitcoinMarkets
|3 min ReadBitcoin May Dip to $104K Before Bull Resumes
Maya Chen
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
Final flush case: 50-week SMA in focus
Analysts are watching for one more sharp move lower before the uptrend restarts. The target sits near 102,500 on TradingView. It has acted as support four times since the bull market began in mid-2023, and several market watchers expect price to revisit it.
observed analyst “Sykodelic” on Thursday. “I know its not what any holder wants to hear, but very likely we take that out.” The analyst added, “The market always feels the worst right before it reverses,” pointing to two recent tags of the same indicator. In April 2025 Bitcoin fell to 49,000. “Both times, sentiment was absolutely fried, just like it is now. And then each time, it reversed hard after tagging that level.”
This chart highlights the 50-week SMA that has guided the trend since mid-2023.
Leverage pockets and moving-average signals
Other voices see the same setup. “We are seeing a repeat of the final phases of correction in September, it seems like the profit taking this time around is less intensive,” shared analyst “Negentropic,” calling it the final flush. That roadmap “opens the door to 235M BTC short, after netting $200M from market crash.
LVRG Research director Nick Ruck said a drawdown would be normal. “Bitcoin may retrace to $104,000 as part of a healthy market correction, driven by profit-taking and macroeconomic uncertainties. However, the underlying fundamentals and institutional interest remain robust, setting the stage for a strong resumption of the bull market,” he told Cointelegraph.
Fellow analyst “Daan Crypto Trades” identified the 200-day exponential moving average as key support through most of this cycle. “There has been some chop around it during uncertain times, but in the end price never lost the trend for more than a month,” he said.
Price stalls at resistance near $108K
In the near term, BTC is stuck below a key level. Over the past 24 hours, price hovered around 113,000, then slipped to 104,000 to $102,500 and holds, history says the next leg of the bull market can follow.
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