MarketsBitcoin
|4 min ReadBitcoin FOMO Returns At $94K Just Before Fed Shock
Jax Morales
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
Bitcoin ripped to a three week high on Tuesday, tagging 94,625 dollars on Coinbase before fading, in a move that flipped social sentiment from fear to greed almost instantly. The timing is not subtle. The spike landed less than a day before the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, with traders already positioned for a clean dovish signal.
FOMO Returns As Retail Chases The Spike
On chain analytics firm Santiment flagged a sharp jump in posts using words like “higher” and “above” once Bitcoin crossed the mid 90,000s. That shift in tone came after weeks of complaints about chop and frustration, which is exactly when fresh price strength tends to pull sidelined money back in.
Price action has not confirmed a clean breakout. After printing 94,625 dollars, Bitcoin slipped back toward 92,400 and stalled, leaving a wick above short term resistance rather than a decisive reclaim of higher ground. That kind of move often reflects aggressive buying into thin liquidity rather than broad spot demand.
Santiment noted that markets frequently move opposite to the behavior of smaller traders. When optimism spikes after a single candle, it often marks a local inflection instead of the start of a new leg. With price now stuck between recent lows and that 94,000 zone, both bulls and bears have room to be wrong.
Fed Meeting Can Turn Relief Into Reversal
The macro calendar is the real catalyst. Futures tracked by CME Group assign roughly an 88.6 percent probability to a 0.25 percentage point cut at Wednesday’s Fed meeting, with markets also assigning about a 21.6 percent chance of another cut as early as January. Bitcoin’s latest move looks like a pre positioning bet that this easing path stays intact.
BTSE chief operating officer Jeff Mei argued that Bitcoin is likely rallying on expectations of rate cuts rather than anything specific to crypto. He also warned that the real risk is not the cut itself, but the tone of the Fed’s guidance on future policy. If Powell signals hesitation about further easing in order to avoid reigniting inflation, that can be read as a hawkish cut.
Traders on X echoed that caution. Analyst “Sykodelic” called any price action into the Federal Open Market Committee “hard to read” and warned that Wednesday’s session is likely to be very volatile. For Bitcoin, that means the current range between roughly 92,000 and 95,000 dollars is provisional. It becomes support or a fakeout only after the Fed clarifies how far it is willing to go.
Order Book Signals Fuel Talk Of Engineered Pump
Not everyone is buying the story that the rally was purely organic. Long term investor “NoLimit” described the move as “pure manipulation” and said the spike “doesn’t look organic at all.” His critique focuses on microstructure rather than conspiracy.
He highlighted three points. Order books have been thin, which makes it relatively cheap to push price several thousand dollars in a short burst. Large market buys hit within a tight window, which is consistent with a coordinated push. After that, there was no follow through, only an immediate stall around the highs.
In that pattern, big players are not trying to start a sustainable trend. They are trying to manufacture FOMO so that they can sell into it at better prices. A quick spike to a three week high draws in momentum traders, options desks that need to hedge upside risk, and systematic strategies keyed to breakouts. Once that fresh demand is in the book, it becomes exit liquidity.
For active traders, the message is simple. A one day jump into resistance, with social sentiment flipping from despair to celebration and a major central bank decision hours away, is not a clean all clear. Bitcoin remains a liquidity asset that trades primarily on global dollar conditions. Until the Fed confirms whether this cut is the start of a true easing cycle or just a cautious adjustment, treating this FOMO rally as a gift to manage risk rather than a reason to max out exposure is the more disciplined play.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.