BitcoinMarkets
|5 min ReadBitcoin eyes $100K relief rally as RSI nears oversold
Lucca Menezes
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
Alpha Briefing: Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is sliding toward the key 30 “oversold” zone while large traders reportedly open fresh longs, setting up what one analyst calls a relief rally toward 110,000. The 50-week moving average near $102,000 and a shift in the Fear & Greed Index from “Extreme Fear” to “Fear” are feeding the case for a short-term bounce. The broader trend is still described as bearish, so any move back into six figures may prove temporary rather than the start of a new bull run.
Bitcoin has spent weeks getting sold off, bleeding lower while sentiment collapsed into “extreme fear.” Now one popular trader says the market may finally be carving out a short-term bottom, with the setup in place for a relief rally that could push the price back toward 110,000 before the next big move.
In a recent video, trader Mister Crypto said Bitcoin’s short-term structure is starting to stabilize after what he described as a full “capitulation” across the market. According to him, indicators tied to trader behavior show that big players are already opening new long positions even as social sentiment looks terrible. That combination has often preceded sharp bounces in past downturns.
RSI and whales hint at a local bottom
A key signal for Mister Crypto is the Bitcoin Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart. He highlighted that it is now approaching the 30 level, which many technical traders treat as the classic oversold threshold.
“We have bottomed out for Bitcoin right here. We have been reaching the 30 level. Boom,” he said, arguing that this zone has lined up closely with market bottoms in previous cycles. The message is simple. When weekly RSI gets this washed out, the market is usually closer to a rebound than to more straight-line pain.
Mister Crypto stressed that this does not guarantee a fresh multi-year bull market right away. Instead, he framed it as a high-probability setup for at least a temporary reversal. Traders who survived the recent selloff are now watching for signs that the selling has exhausted itself, while whales quietly reload on the long side.
The trader’s view comes as the broader market is still digesting a heavy post-Thanksgiving move. Bitcoin dropped hard into the holiday, cleaned out late bulls, and left charts that look ugly but historically attractive for deep-value dip buyers who love fear.
50-week moving average puts $102,000 in play
Beyond RSI, Mister Crypto pointed to Bitcoin’s relationship with the 50-week moving average as another major clue. That moving average currently sits near $102,000, and in previous cycles, Bitcoin has often retraced toward it after falling below.
In his analysis, that historical pattern matters. The idea is that after a sharp breakdown, Bitcoin tends to snap back toward the 50-week level before a new longer-term trend takes over. If that happens again, a bounce into the low six-figure zone would not be some miracle rally. It would simply be Bitcoin doing what it has done many times before.
This is where macro comes in. Mister Crypto noted that expectations are building that quantitative tightening could soon end. At the same time, traders are speculating about another interest rate cut at an upcoming policy meeting. Easier policy, or even the hint of it, usually helps risk assets. Bitcoin often reacts early and violently when the market senses easier financial conditions coming.
Still, he kept a cautious tone on the big picture. In his view, the broader crypto market remains in bear territory, and the macro backdrop has not fully flipped to “risk on” yet. That means any bounce, even a beautiful one back above $100,000, could later face renewed selling if growth data and liquidity trends fail to improve.
Fear gauge improves as asymmetric setup returns
The sentiment picture is also starting to shift, at least slightly. After spending 18 straight days in “Extreme Fear,” the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has finally lifted to a “Fear” reading of 28. That is not bullish euphoria. It is still fear. But it shows the mood is stabilizing rather than collapsing.
At the same time, Bitwise Europe research head André Dragosch has argued that Bitcoin could have major upside from here because its current price does not reflect improving macro expectations. He compared today’s risk-reward to the COVID crash of March 2020, when Bitcoin plunged, then roared back as central banks opened the taps.
Dragosch described the setup as “asymmetric” for investors who can stomach the volatility. In his framing, the market is already pricing in an extremely bleak global outlook. If that outlook improves even a bit, Bitcoin has room to rerate higher, while the downside may be more limited than the headlines suggest.
Put together, the picture is clear. Weekly RSI is near oversold, whales are reportedly going long, the 50-week moving average around $102,000 is back on the radar, and fear is easing off its most extreme levels. The trend is still a bear, but for traders who live for aggressive relief rallies, Bitcoin’s next act may already be forming under the surface.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.