BitcoinMarkets
|8 min ReadBitcoin Breaks 100K as On-Chain Signals Point to a Market Shift
Jax Morales
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
Bitcoin falling below 100,000 dollars has triggered a new wave of fear across the market. Traders want to know if the bull cycle is truly over or if this is another hard reset inside a longer expansion. A new report from 10x Research, a team known for calling major turns in bitcoin’s history, offers a clear narrative built on data, flows, and behavior. The message is sharp. Momentum is weakening, long-term holders are selling, and several core indicators have crossed into bearish zones. But the downturn may not last as long as past cycles.
A Research Team With a Strong Track Record
10x Research has made several accurate forecasts in recent years. They called the bitcoin bottom in late 2022, projected the run toward 63,000 dollars before the 2024 halving, and mapped the move toward 45,000 dollars ahead of Christmas 2023. They identified bitcoin mining stocks early and anticipated the ETF-driven surge toward 57,000 dollars.
Their latest analysis asks a single question. Do current on-chain and market signals show a real bear market, or a deep but temporary correction. They point to three recent events that shaped the downturn. The October 10 crash. Strange investor behavior after the selloff. And Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressing uncertainty about a December rate cut. All three fit into a weakening macro environment.
With bitcoin ETF approval behind us, regulation is no longer the main drag. The real issue is flow. When new money slows and profit-taking outpaces demand, the bull trend loses power.
Bitcoin Slips Below Its 21-Week EMA
The 21-week exponential moving average has been a reliable trend divider in bitcoin’s history. When price falls below it, the market often enters a mini bear phase. The same signal worked in 2022, during the 2024 summer reset, and in last year’s early-year correction.
Right now, the critical range is 110,000 to 112,000 dollars. If price stays below this band, 10x Research holds a bearish view. Their models show bitcoin trading between 100,000 and 110,000 dollars, with risk of deeper declines if buyers fail to regain control.
Long-Term Holders Exit With 20 Billion Dollars in Sales
Long-term holders usually sell into strength and accumulate during weakness. But in the past 30 days they sold 185,000 BTC worth roughly 20 billion dollars. In earlier cycles, similar waves of long-term selling preceded sharp declines, including the 2022 slide from 40,000 to 15,000 dollars. The message is clear. Many experienced investors expect more downside.
Realized Value Ratios Turn Negative
The ratio comparing realized market value with current market value flipped negative. This is one of the strongest historic indicators of cycle weakness. When the ratio turns red, corrections deepen and market participants often rotate to safety. The signal is now negative again.
Inflows Slow as Bullish Energy Fades
Zooming in on recent flows shows fading momentum similar to the weakest period of March this year. Even though bitcoin bounced earlier, it dropped another 10 percent from the rebound high. The current decline is only three weeks old, far shorter than the two-to-three-month corrections of early 2024. That leaves room for more downside pressure.
Short-Term Holders Move Into Loss
Short-term holders bought at an average price of 112,798 dollars. When price falls below their cost basis, stop-loss selling and liquidations increase. That happened again in October during a wave of forced liquidations. Until the market reclaims 113,000 dollars, the path of least resistance stays downward.
A Possible Rebound Toward 110K Before Another Drop
Market structure now resembles a W-shaped recovery instead of a clean V. That means bitcoin could bounce toward 110,000 dollars before another decline. But timing such a move is difficult. 10x Research stays bearish below 113,000 dollars, prioritizing capital protection over chasing small rallies.
Speculation Thins Out After Heavy Liquidations
On October 10, when Donald Trump threatened 100 percent tariffs on China after market hours, bitcoin futures were the only major instrument still trading. That moment triggered 20 billion dollars in liquidations. Since then, leverage, open interest, and funding rates all show a cautious market. With speculation cooling, strong rebounds become harder.
Long-Term Holders Take Profit as a Warning Sign
Coin Days Destroyed measures when old coins move. Rising activity often marks distribution phases. Although the metric weakens during prolonged bear markets, the recent spike still signals caution.
MVRV Turns Negative and Points to a Longer Reset
Short-term investors are now in net loss. This is similar to the early stages of the 2021 to 2022 downturn. Momentum today is weak compared with the 2020 bull wave, leaving the market more fragile. When investors turn negative, corrections often deepen and extend.
True Market Mean Price Shows Profit Erosion
The true market mean price reflects the average cost of active investors. Market activity has faded since summer, and enthusiasm has cooled since political catalysts earlier in the year. When average cost rises and price moves lower, profit cushions shrink, increasing the probability of capitulation.
Smaller Bull Waves Leave Exhaustion
Bitcoin has seen two to three short-lived bull waves in the past two years. Each was weaker than the last. The short-term spend output indicator has not yet fallen to zero, which means the market has not fully flushed out weak hands. Historically, bottoms form when profitability collapses near zero.
Capitulation Strengthens as Momentum Fades
Short-term unrealized profit metrics reveal deepening capitulation. The market may chop between 100,000 and 110,000 dollars while waiting for the next major catalyst. The December 10 FOMC meeting could be the next turning point.
True Mean Price Puts the Bear Threshold Near 82K
The true mean price sits near 82,000 dollars. In past cycles, drops below this level signaled deep bear markets. The next major support is 93,000 dollars. The zone between 68,000 and 93,000 dollars has low historical trading volume, meaning price could move quickly if it enters that region. As long as bitcoin trades below 113,000 dollars, 10x Research holds a bearish stance.
A Fragile Market With New Holders at Risk
Average profitability fell from 75 percent to 25 percent. Many new investors bought bitcoin between 100,000 and 126,000 dollars. That concentration creates a fragile structure. If price dips toward 100,000 dollars, investors who bought near 120,000 dollars may capitulate, accelerating declines.
The data tells a clear story. Bitcoin may be in a bear market, but it is one shaped by exhaustion rather than collapse. The market will not recover without a sustained move above 113,000 dollars. Until then, the trend points down.
Origin Source: 10x Research
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.