BitcoinMarkets
|3 min ReadBitcoin battleground range could decide the next cycle
Maya Chen
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
The market picked its arena. Buyers and sellers are clashing between 115,000. That is the battleground. Hold the range and Bitcoin pushes higher. Lose it and the move stalls.
Why this zone sets up the next move
In an X post, Bitcoin Vector said BTC has entered its decisive battleground between 115,000. Spot demand was weak last week as US-China trade tensions escalated. As those tensions eased, demand showed up again and BTC clawed back above $110,000. Momentum is still negative and flat. Without sustained inflows and real spot demand, the bullish structure can fade fast and open another pullback. If demand holds and momentum turns up, BTC advances deeper into the zone. If it fails, the market retreats and waves the white flag.
Momentum watch: the 4-hour 50 SMA and trader calls
A full-time crypto trader, Sykodelic, has offered a confident call that Bitcoin can be back at an all-time high by month’s end. The tell is straightforward. Each time price retests the 4-hour 50-period Simple Moving Average as support, expansions have followed. “I think the worst is behind us,” Sykodelic said. The cycle feels like disbelief. Traders say the rally is over, then price moves again. A long flush clears late entrants, belief returns near prior highs, and the trend resumes. Very familiar. Very strong.
Supply tug-of-war shaping the path
According to BitBull of MGBX_EN, the supply story is a tug-of-war. Long-term holders are offloading coins. Institutions are absorbing through Spot ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries. Treasury holdings have topped $120 billion, with BTC still dominating. Spot ETFs alone absorbed tens of thousands of coins this quarter. Yet long-term holders are selling faster than ETFs and treasuries can absorb. Historically, accelerated LTH distribution dents short-term momentum. This is not a bearish setup. It means upside can be capped until selling pressure fades. Institutions are buying strength, not bottoms. The next major breakout likely hinges on when LTHs stop distributing and pivot back to accumulation.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.