Markets
|3 min ReadBitcoin and Ethereum pause ahead of Fed, VIX
Maya Chen
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
The market went quiet on Monday. That calm can snap fast. Traders are lining up for a packed week. Revisions to U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls hit Tuesday. Producer Price Inflation lands Wednesday. Consumer Price Index follows on Thursday. Then the Federal Reserve speaks on September 17. The same day, VIX futures expire. That overlap can yank risk assets hard.
Investors know the stakes. The jobs market cooled in July and August. Revisions are expected between -450,000 and -950,000, as The Kobeissi Letter tweeted Tuesday. A friendly inflation glide path opens the door to more rate cuts beyond September. A hot print forces a reset in crypto positioning. Simple as that.
“Inflation is currently the unknown variable for the rate path equation,” said Greg Magadini, Director of Derivatives at Amberdata, told Decrypt. He added a warning on timing. “This makes me think the VIX futures for September have priced away risk while October could be ugly.”
Macro pressure, altcoin heat
Altcoins woke up first. Dogecoin led the weekend push among the top ten. Price trades near $0.22 after a 5.1 percent jump in 24 hours. TRON gained about 2.4 percent. XRP added roughly 2 percent, per CoinGecko data. That move came after what one market founder called an overreaction to Friday’s U.S. unemployment numbers. He also said U.S. President Donald Trump is keeping energy prices down. He cautioned that might not be enough to contain inflation without a credible Fed mandate.
Bitcoin sentiment looks split. U.S. Google search interest fell to an 11-month low. Gold keeps setting records. Experts see room for capital to rotate back into the bellwether crypto. The divergence is clear. Curiosity dipped. Prices did not break. That is fuel, not failure.
“This is a potent powder keg for volatility,” said Sean Dawson to Decrypt. Expiring VIX futures clear hedges. The Fed decision delivers the direction.
Ethereum edges Bitcoin in momentum
Derivatives tell the near-term story. Ethereum’s perpetual data looks a touch stronger than Bitcoin. Cumulative spot volume stays in an uptrend. Open interest jumped $438 million overnight to $24.3 billion, according to Coinalyze. Bitcoin’s open interest rose by roughly $450 million to $30.41 billion over the same stretch. Flow showed no clear tilt between buyers and sellers. That balance can break fast once the data hits.
So where to next. If inflation cooperates, the path softens and dip buyers win. If prints surprise to the upside, we get a shakeout before the next leg. September 17 adds extra torque as VIX futures expire into the Fed call. Prepare your levels. Size with intent. When the switch flips, it moves quick.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.