MarketsEthereumBitcoinAltcoins
|3 min ReadBig Holders Keep Buying as Leverage Clears Out
Maya Chen
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
Dolphins keep the bull trend alive
Bitcoin shook off the $19 billion “Black Friday” wipeout. The leverage burned off. The big bags did not flinch. CryptoQuant says the “dolphin” cohort — entities holding 100 to 1,000 BTC — kept accumulating after the cascade, preserving the bull-market structure. Their behavior has steered trends before. When they add, price momentum usually follows.
The numbers are clear. Dolphin holdings are growing at an annual pace of 907,000 BTC. That is strong. Still, there is a short-term wrinkle. The group’s 30-day balance slipped below its 30-day moving average, a sign near-term demand has cooled. A catalyst could flip it back. Analysts say sustained ETF inflows would do it. That would be tremendous fuel.
A rare setup, with history on its side
Traders love clean setups. They do not come often. “The current setup for Bitcoin and Ethereum is rare,” Quinn Thompson, CIO of Lekker Capital, said in a Monday tweet, pointing to the liquidation reset. “Opportunity ahead is similar to pre-Trump victory ’24.”
History agrees. After a 30 to 40 percent rise in open interest — like the move on October 10 — Bitcoin has a 75 percent chance of posting a positive three-month return, Valter Rebelo, head of digital assets at Empiricus, noted in a Thursday tweet. The average gain over the next 90 days in those cases is about 25.9 percent. That is not a promise. It is a powerful base rate.
Sentiment is stabilizing. Bitcoin is up about 2 percent in 24 hours, setting a local high near $109,405, per CoinGecko. Some experts told Decrypt the market looks like it is bottoming, with the next move more likely up than down. The macro headwinds are still out there. But positioning is lighter, and strong hands are in charge.
Altcoins test the risk switch
Risk appetite is showing up where it always does first. Altcoins. As Bitcoin and Ethereum volumes eased since October 21, altcoin trading volume share climbed to roughly 46 percent, up about 33 percent, per CoinGecko and CoinGlass style aggregates. That is a classic early-cycle tell. Money tiptoes out the curve when leverage is flushed and spot buyers return.
Leaders are popping. World Liberty Financial jumped about 13 percent. Hyperliquid gained roughly 5.9 percent. Solana added around 5.8 percent, per CoinGecko. On the flow side, whales are still active. A new wallet scooped 3,824, and corporates like SharpLink and Bitmine Immersion Technologies disclosed large ETH accumulations last week. That is serious conviction.
Here is the playbook. Let leverage reset. Follow the dolphins. Watch ETF flows. If spot demand firms and open interest rebuilds without froth, the path of least resistance is higher. Everybody knows it. The market just needed a cleaner slate, and it got one.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.