StablecoinOpinion
|4 min ReadArthur Hayes Says Tether Is Now A Giant Rate Trade On Bitcoin And Gold
Maya Chen
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
Alpha Briefing: Arthur Hayes claims Tether has quietly turned USDT into a massive interest rate and macro bet by loading its equity into Bitcoin and gold while sitting on a mountain of short term Treasuries. In his view, a roughly 30 percent drawdown in those BTC and gold holdings could wipe out Tether’s capital cushion and leave the world’s largest stablecoin “theoretically insolvent,” forcing big exchanges and regulators to demand a real time look at its balance sheet.
Arthur Hayes is looking at Tether’s latest reserve breakdown and he is not seeing a sleepy cash box. He is seeing a macro trading book sitting under the biggest dollar stablecoin on earth.
On paper, the structure still looks conservative. Tether issues USDT, pays users nothing on their balances, then parks most of the backing in U.S. Treasury bills, overnight repos, money market funds and bank deposits. That stack throws off billions in interest as long as yields stay high and redemptions stay calm.
Hayes’ read is that Tether now believes the fat-yield era is ending. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates, interest income on the T-bill portfolio will slide. So Tether is using its equity layer to reach for upside, buying assets that tend to pop when real rates fall: Bitcoin and gold. The stablecoin giant, in his words, is “in the early innings of running a massive interest rate trade.”
How A Stablecoin Becomes A Carry Trade
Strip his argument down and the trade looks straightforward. USDT liabilities are effectively zero-yield deposits. The bulk of the reserves sit in short term government paper that currently pays a nice coupon. That spread is pure profit.
On top of that, Tether allocates its own capital to volatile risk assets. Bitcoin and gold are the headline items in the latest report, alongside other investments and secured loans. If the Fed cuts, those assets are supposed to moon as the dollar cheapens and liquidity loosens. Tether keeps the carry from Treasuries and captures the upside from the risk book.
That is the sunny path where everyone wins: USDT holds its peg, reserves grow, and Tether’s equity balloons as BTC and gold rally.
The 30 Percent Shock That Hayes Worries About
Hayes focuses on the dark path instead. He runs a simple stress test: assume a combined 30 percent drop in the gold and Bitcoin positions. On his math, that move is big enough to erase Tether’s equity buffer. The Treasuries and cash still exist, but the cushion that is supposed to absorb market swings is gone.
Legally, Tether might still argue it is fully backed if it can hold to maturity and avoid forced sales. Markets do not think like that. Large exchanges, market makers and institutional holders care about mark-to-market solvency. If they believe the equity is underwater, they will demand a live, independent look at the balance sheet or quietly rotate into rival stablecoins.
At that point, the risk is not a slow bleed on a spreadsheet. The risk is a confidence run.
What Comes Next For The Tether Story
Hayes expects mainstream media and long time Tether critics to jump on this angle. For years, the fight was over whether the reserves even existed. Now the question is different: how much market risk sits inside those reserves, and who is really bearing it?
For now, USDT still clears most of crypto trading and holds its one dollar peg. But if Hayes is right, every USDT is no longer just a neutral digital dollar. It is a small slice of Tether’s macro view on interest rates, Bitcoin and gold, with holders unknowingly riding shotgun on a very large trade.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.