OpinionBitcoin
|3 min ReadArthur Hayes says France’s central bank deficit is bullish for Bitcoin
Maya Chen
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
The deficit that prints money
France’s books are bleeding, and Arthur Hayes likes what that means for Bitcoin. The Banque de France reported a €7.7 billion loss in 2024 — roughly $8 billion — driven by high interest payments and negative net income. That helped push France’s overall government deficit to €168 billion, or 5.8% of GDP, nearly double the EU’s 3% limit. For Hayes, the problem is not just the size. It is what comes next: the printing press.
“French capital is leaving France,” the BitMEX co-founder told Cointelegraph at TOKEN2049 in Singapore. “If you look at the gross change of any other member, it’s the worst.” Hayes says this capital flight, paired with global rebalancing as the US shifts policy, sets up the European Central Bank for a major decision. “That is what predicates the ECB to print now or print later in the trillions of euros. And that’s the aggregate size,” he said. “Another great thing for crypto.”
ECB’s dilemma: print now or print later
Roughly 60% of French bonds are held by foreign investors, led by Germany and Japan. Hayes points out that with US capital pulling back, those flows are drying up. “My thesis is basically the ECB prints now, or they print later, and in both cases, they lose control,” he said. “Because in both cases, the people would rather default, redenominate, do capital controls, print the money, have their way of life.”
In his view, the ECB can either print now to sustain French spending or print later to rescue the wider European banking system. “There’s no other option,” Hayes said. That logic mirrors past crises: policymakers will eventually create liquidity, not scarcity. And in that environment, Bitcoin thrives.
Bitcoin’s history with easy money
France’s growing deficit could push the ECB toward quantitative easing — buying bonds and injecting cash into the economy to fight stagnation. Hayes sees that as bullish. Bitcoin’s best rallies have followed similar global money waves. When the US Federal Reserve launched its 6,000 to $69,000 in just 20 months.
BTC/USD, one-week chart, 2020–2021. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Hayes expects history to rhyme. Europe’s coming liquidity may look like a crisis to policymakers but, to Bitcoin holders, it is oxygen. “The ECB will print,” he said. “The only question is when.”
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.