MarketsOpinion
|4 min ReadAnalysts see crypto fear fading as rate cuts loom
Tariq Al-Saidi
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
Fear is loud. Opportunity is quiet. Traders are dumping risk, but the tape says patience pays. If you sell now, you sell to stronger hands.
Santiment says crowd sentiment turned darker this week as Bitcoin slipped and altcoins retraced. Traders on X talked about selling, new lows, and a fresh bear market. Santiment reminded everyone that markets often move opposite to the crowd. Two weeks of FUD can be the fuel for the next push. Crypto market sentiment fell into Fear on Sunday, then steadied.
Source: Santiment
The catalyst path: Fed cuts, cleaner tape
Analysts expect the negativity to fade if Bitcoin firms up and the Federal Reserve cuts rates. Some banks project at least two cuts in 2025. Pav Hundal at Swyftx says next week’s Fed meeting is the focus. Any cut could be a “key catalyst for positivity.” He says bond market stress and softer job openings grabbed attention. After a euphoric high, the market is recalibrating. A healthy correction, not a collapse.
“We have a euphoria index model that very clearly shows BTC’s most recent all-time high was the product of a frothy market,” Hundal says. The 30-day rolling performance is negative. He says that means a correction already happened and it shook out weak hands after the 124,000 dollar top.
Santiment posted the sentiment shift on X. Read it here: https://x.com/santimentfeed/status/1965512799700111621
Levels and flows that can flip mood
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index bounced back to Neutral on Monday after several days in Fear. Last month it averaged Greed. The reset is real. It clears the air.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index returned to neutral territory on Monday. Source: alternative.me
BTC Markets’ Charlie Sherry says extremes cut both ways. Heavy bearishness often marks the end of the move, not the start. He points to 117,000 dollars. Reclaim that, and sentiment “would swiftly swing back.” He notes the big-picture target is 200,000 dollars, but that is distant in time and price. Near term, chop and doubt are normal.
Flows can help too. Corporate crypto treasuries are back in play. Forward Industries said Monday it secured 1.65 billion dollars in cash and stablecoins to run a Solana-focused treasury. Sherry says the Solana treasury trade has upside, even if returns are tighter than Ether’s run. It is a trend to watch.
Seasonals, policy, and why fear should pass
CK Zheng at ZX Squared Capital says September is historically the worst month for equities. Caution is natural. He still expects the fear to be temporary. The turn depends on data and policy. Watch CPI and PPI. Watch the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Past tariff announcements hit crypto. Prices dropped when the duties landed.
The read is straightforward. Crowds panic late. Smart money scales in when the index says Fear, not when it screams Greed. If the Fed blinks and Bitcoin reclaims 117,000, sentiment flips. If treasuries keep buying, liquidity deepens. You do not need to guess the top. You need to survive the shakeout and press when the wind turns.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.