Altcoins
|5 min ReadAltseason has changed: IOSG says the blind-buy era is over
Maya Chen
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
The hook: stop waiting for 2021 to repeat
Everyone wants the 2021 flood to return. It will not come back the same way. IOSG’s Jiawei says the “buy anything” altseason is history. The new cycle will still reward. It will reward focus, cash flow, and real usage. Not blind bets.
Back in 2021 the setup was unique. Pandemic money printed at record speed. Yields were crushed. Cash chased risk. Stablecoin supply exploded from about 20 billion dollars at the end of 2020 to more than 150 billion by the end of 2021. On-chain finance had just found product-market fit after DeFi Summer. NFTs and the metaverse pushed crypto into pop culture. Supply of credible tokens was limited. Attention was concentrated. A few DeFi blue chips like Uniswap, Aave, Compound, and Maker carried the lane. It was easy for capital to move together. Prices levitated for months.
Why the old playbook broke
The market structure transformed. Token supply ballooned. Venture dollars bid up private rounds. Airdrop culture spread. Memecoins went viral. Issuance accelerated and valuations followed.
Unlocks now hang over majors. Outside memecoins, many projects face huge cliffs. TokenUnlocks data points to more than 200 billion dollars of tokens set to unlock in 2024 to 2025. High FDV. Low float. Heavy supply.
Attention fragmented. Pre-TGE mindshare splinters across 10 or more micro-sectors in the top twenty alone. In 2021 you could summarize narratives in three words: DeFi, NFT, GameFi. Today there is no quick label. Money rotates faster. Cycles last weeks, not quarters. Focus shatters, so broad follow-through dies.
Liquidity dynamics also changed. Institutions and ETFs pushed Bitcoin and Ethereum higher. Those players do not chase long-tail tokens. They prefer custodial, compliant assets and products. That creates a siphon into the top. It does not lift the edges. Retail, meanwhile, is stuck. Many got trapped in alts over the past two years. Little spare ammo remains. The classic spillover from BTC and ETH into the tail never ignited. Breakout consumer apps are scarce. Infra boomed. Killer apps did not. Without new users and durable models, broad rallies cannot hold.
What the next altseason looks like
It still comes. It just looks different. As Bitcoin near 100,000 dollars lost short-term momentum, capital began to hunt the next target. The same will happen after Ethereum legs up. But it will flow with filters.
Money will seek fundamentals and PMF. Think Uniswap and Aave as resilient blue chips. Think new earners like Ethena, Hyperliquid, and Pendle that already print fees. Governance switches and fee distribution can act as catalysts. These names may not 10x in a week. They can compound.
Beta trades will shadow leaders. When ETH runs, proxies like UNI, ETHFI, and ENS can amplify the move. They offer torque with weaker staying power.
Mainstream adoption can reprice old lanes. If stablecoins accelerate and grow fourfold to one trillion dollars, a slice will wash into DeFi. That pushes a new valuation framework beyond simple TVL. From crypto-native products to assets legible to TradFi. Blue-chip DeFi gets a new multiple.
Local booms will matter. HyperEVM concentrates users, mindshare, and fresh capital. Its ecosystem can deliver weeks to months of alpha while the spotlight lasts.
Leaders will face valuation debates. Take pump.fun. After the issuance frenzy cooled and multiples reset, the market split. If fundamentals stay strong, a rebuild can follow. As the memecoin index leader with real revenue and a buyback model, it can outpace most top memecoins over the mid-term.
Zoom out and the barbell takes shape. On one side, blue-chip DeFi and core infra with cash flow, network effects, and institutional comfort. On the other, raw risk chips like memecoins and flash narratives for pure speculation. Mid-tier projects with some product but weak moats get squeezed until liquidity returns.
Institutions will demand numbers, not vibes. DeFi will lean harder into fee distribution, buybacks, and dividends over the next 6 to 12 months. Aave’s Horizon aims to let tokenized U.S. Treasuries and institutional funds collateralize stablecoin borrowing. As rates shift and TradFi seeks on-chain yield, standardized yield infra wins. Pendle, Ethena, and smart aggregators are well placed. There is also a new threat. Big brands can ship regulated, walled-garden versions that compete with DeFi. The Tempo blockchain from Paradigm and Stripe hints at that future.
The message is simple. The blind-buy party is over. The opportunity is not. Pick the venues with real users and real fees. Ride the beta when leaders run. Hunt local waves where attention concentrates. That is how you win this altseason.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.