BitcoinOpinion
|6 min ReadAcademic model supports bold BTC forecasts: $3M in five years?
Maya Chen
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
Data-driven optimism meets institutional conviction
Bitcoin has been called many things — volatile, speculative, even digital gold. Now, a new academic study says it may soon be something else: a multi-million-dollar asset. Research from the nonprofit Satoshi Action Education projects a 75% probability that Bitcoin surpasses 3.8 million forecast for 2030, and almost double MicroStrategy’s $2.4 million target for 2036.
The paper’s baseline model points to a median value near 125 trillion in market capitalization, six to eight times the current global gold market. More importantly, it identifies a nearer milestone. Based on current trends, Bitcoin is most likely to cross **1.1 million by 2027’s close.
Unlike earlier institutional forecasts, this model excludes assumptions about Bitcoin replacing gold or becoming global money. It only considers a fixed 21-million supply and observable demand data — ETF inflows, corporate buying, miner hoarding, and long-term holding behavior. Every variable can be tracked in real time, from Bloomberg’s ETF flow terminals to on-chain analytics from Glassnode and CryptoQuant. The math is public; the pressure is visible.
Demand outpaces new supply by 10 to 1
ETF inflows and corporate accumulation continue to tighten the float. As of late July 2025, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed about 2,900 BTC per day and held a combined 1.485 million coins, or 7.1% of total supply. BlackRock’s IBIT alone controls over 730,000 BTC. Public companies add another 923,000 coins, with Strategy — the renamed MicroStrategy — owning 607,000 BTC and still buying roughly 1,000 a day. Major miners like Marathon have begun holding their output instead of selling.
Across ETFs, corporations, miners, and retail holders, an estimated 5,000 to 6,000 BTC leave circulation daily, while miners produce only 450 new coins. Daily demand therefore exceeds new supply by more than tenfold.
Out of 19.9 million mined coins, roughly 1.57 million are believed lost forever and about 970,000 early Satoshi-era coins have never moved. Of the remaining 17.36 million “active” coins, 14.4 million have been dormant for over 155 days. If 40% of those are permanently locked away, only about 11.6 million BTC are truly liquid today.
The shrinking float mirrors 2019–2020 conditions, when coins steadily left exchanges before the 2021 bull run. The difference this time is speed: outflows now occur roughly twice as fast.
The 2-million threshold: when scarcity turns explosive
The study’s simulations show that if circulating supply falls below two million BTC, price growth could become nonlinear. Below that level, each incremental buy pushes prices disproportionately higher, triggering a feedback loop where rising prices encourage even more holding.
At various outflow rates:
- 1,000 BTC/day — 9.92M liquid by 2036, price ~$1.39M
- 2,000 BTC/day — 7.48M liquid, price ~$1.6M
- 4,000 BTC/day — 3.3M liquid, price ~$2.41M
- 6,000 BTC/day — 0.56M liquid, price ~$5.86M
At current withdrawal speeds (around 6,000 BTC/day), that critical 2-million mark could arrive as early as 2028–2029. Once crossed, models suggest prices may accelerate almost vertically.
Will the “sleeping” coins wake up?
The main uncertainty is whether the 14.4 million dormant BTC will re-enter circulation when prices soar. Simulations using 10,000 randomized supply scenarios found that even under the most liquid case — 13 million tradable coins — there remains a 50% chance BTC tops $6 million by 2036.
If buyers halve their purchasing pace each time price triples, the model’s forecast drops to roughly 65,000 to $118,000 this year. Institutional demand, for now, appears price-insensitive.
Four on-chain metrics to watch
The study proposes four real-time indicators for investors to track Bitcoin’s approach toward a supply-driven inflection point:
- Exchange balances — currently around 3 million BTC. If they fall below this and decline by over 100,000–150,000 per month, liquidity is tightening fast.
- ETF net inflows — daily additions above 2,000–3,000 BTC indicate sustained institutional appetite.
- Long-term holder share — now 72%; above 75% signals accelerating supply lockup.
- Net daily outflow — combining ETF buys, miner holdings, and corporate accumulation minus 450 new coins. Sustained 6,000–7,000 BTC/day levels could trigger the “nonlinear zone.”
A roadmap, not a prophecy
The model does not claim certainty — only mechanics. If 21 million fixed supply meets continuous institutional demand, scarcity compounds. Black swans or regulatory shocks could still derail the curve. But absent those, the direction is clear: supply contracts, demand persists, and the timeline to $1 million compresses.
Three years ago, any buyer who simply held is still in profit today. In another three or five years, today’s $120,000 price may look cheap — or prove that models, after all, remain models. Time will tell, but now we know what numbers to watch.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.