AirdropMarketsAltcoins
|4 min Read88% of Airdrops Lose Value！！！How to Break the Curse
Maya Chen
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
The Hype Problem
Airdrops remain one of crypto’s favorite marketing tools, but history shows they rarely end well. A new DappRadar study found that 88 percent of airdropped tokens lose value within three months of launch.
The report, released on Sept. 18 by analyst Sara Gherghelas, reviewed seven years of data and estimated that projects have distributed more than $20 billion in airdrops since 2017 — most of which quickly lost steam. “It highlights the gap between short-term hype and long-term sustainability,” the study said.
Speaking with media, DappRadar’s head of content Robert Hoogendoorn explained that the real key lies in distribution. “Projects want to place their tokens in the hands of diamond holders,” he said.
He noted that phased or targeted drops, like those used by Optimism, helped limit sell-offs. But there’s no one formula. It depends on distribution, product–market fit, and real token utility.
“The market cycle matters,” Hoogendoorn added. “A successful airdrop is one that keeps the community interested even after the token launch.”
Smarter Distribution, Not Bigger Drops
Airdrops first appeared in 2014 when Auroracoin handed out its AUR tokens to Icelanders as a national alternative to Bitcoin. Since then, the concept has evolved.
Today’s projects often rely on onchain engagement metrics, social campaigns, or liquidity rewards. Hoogendoorn argues that teams must study a user’s wallet behavior and reputation to avoid farming abuse.
“We’re already seeing a trend where distribution taps into reputation, for example by integrating social media activity,” he said. “Projects now use engagement platforms to decide who gets a share of their drop.”
Bad Projects, Bad Tokens
Jackson Denka, CEO of Azura — a DeFi platform backed by the Winklevoss twins — said most failed airdrops stem from weak fundamentals. “Many are tied to protocols that are unsound, lack adoption, and don’t generate revenue,” he told reporters.
“No amount of incentivization can fix that. If airdrops are attached to good, growing products, they’ll rise in value over time.”
Hyperliquid’s 2024 airdrop was praised as one of the best ever because it excluded venture capitalists and rewarded real community users. Denka expects the model to fade as initial coin offerings return, where investors buy tokens before public release — similar to IPOs in traditional markets.
“No financial market gives away free equity to users,” he said. “Uber didn’t, Robinhood didn’t, and Facebook didn’t. We’ll look back at the airdrop craze as a temporary phase in crypto’s history.”
Liquidity Is the Missing Piece
Airdrops also suffer from poor liquidity planning. Kanny Lee, CEO of SecondSwap, said projects often flood the market too quickly.
Two of the more successful examples, he noted, rewarded ongoing user activity and introduced gradual unlock schedules to release supply in stages. This slowed token dilution and maintained trading depth.
“Value lasts longer when users stay engaged and liquidity builds progressively,” Lee said. “It’s not about how many wallets receive tokens, but how long those tokens stay active.”
He expects staged rewards and retention-based incentives to become the new norm. “Sustainable liquidity should be the goal of any airdrop. Programs that reward continued participation help prevent the sharp corrections that follow mass distributions,” he said.
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.