MarketsBitcoin
|6 min Read10 Broken Gauges: Why Bitcoin's 2025 Top Looked Nothing Like History
Lucca Menezes
Senior Analyst
Published
Jan 16, 2026
Bitcoin peaked on October 6 and has been bleeding out since. In any normal cycle, the on-chain alarms would be ringing. But this time? Silence.
The "Smart Money" indicators are flashing green while the price is red. This divergence is terrifying—it suggests the market structure has fundamentally mutated due to ETFs and macro shifts. We audited the 10 most famous indicators to see why they failed.
1. Pi Cycle Top: No Cross
The Theory: When the 111DMA crosses the 350DMA x2, the top is in. It called the 2017 and 2021 peaks perfectly.
The 2025 Reality: No cross. The rally lost momentum before it could even trigger this high-conviction signal.
2. Puell Multiple: Miners Are Starving
The Theory: High scores (>7) mean miners are dumping at peak profit.
The 2025 Reality: The score is stuck at 1-2. Miners are not the ones selling; they are barely surviving.
3. Rainbow Chart: Stuck in Yellow
The Theory: "Red" means Bubble/Sell. "Blue" means Fire Sale.
The 2025 Reality: We stalled in the Yellow/Orange zone. The "Bubble" phase never arrived.
4. 2-Year MA Multiplier: No Overheating
The Theory: Price exceeding the 2-Year MA x5 usually signals a crash.
The 2025 Reality: The multiplier sits at a modest 2-3x. We are miles away from the "Overheated" zone of previous cycles (which hit 10x).
5. 4-Year Moving Average: Diminishing Peaks
The Theory: Measures how far price stretches above the 4-year trend.
The 2025 Reality: The peak deviation was only 2.3, continuing a clear trend of diminishing returns (16 in 2017 -> 6 in 2021 -> 2.3 in 2025). The explosive volatility is gone.
6. MVRV Z-Score: The Value Trap
The Theory: Measures unrealized profit. High scores = Market Top.
The 2025 Reality: Peaked at 3. For context, 2017 peaked at 10. The market is becoming more efficient, erasing the easy "overvaluation" signals.
Even the standard MVRV rate shows a distinct downtrend in peak volatility:
7. Altcoin Season Index: The Season That Never Came
The Theory: Bitcoin tops -> Profits rotate to Alts -> Index > 75.
The 2025 Reality: Dead at 30-40. Liquidity is not trickling down; it is exiting the system entirely. Too many scam tokens have diluted the pool.
8. Long-Term Holder (LTH) Supply: Anomalous Holding
The Theory: LTHs sell into strength. Supply drops at the top.
The 2025 Reality: While there was some selling, it didn't match the aggressive distribution of past peaks. The "Diamond Hands" held, but the price fell anyway.
9. Short-Term Holder (STH) Supply: No Mania
The Theory: A spike in STH supply means retail FOMO is peaking.
The 2025 Reality: STH supply rose but never reached the "Mania Levels" of 2017 or 2021. The retail herd never fully arrived to be the exit liquidity.
10. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): Fear Over Greed
The Theory: Measures greed. >0.75 is the danger zone.
The 2025 Reality: We touched 0.64 in March but have since crashed to 0.34. The market sentiment is currently closer to "Fear" than "Greed."
The Verdict: A New Paradigm
The failure of these 10 indicators points to a single conclusion: Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative cycle asset to a mature macro asset.
The ETF era has dampened volatility. If you are waiting for the "Red Band" on the Rainbow Chart or a Pi Cycle Cross to sell, you might be waiting forever. The old maps do not work in this new territory.
[Source: WEEX Labs]
Disclaimer: This document is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. The views expressed in this document are not, and should not be taken as, investment advice or recommendations. Recipients should do their own due diligence, taking into account their specific financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, which are not considered here, before investing. This document is not an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any of the assets mentioned.